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if it is true, crack addict or lottery player, sure.. don't have kids. but might as well end if for ourselves too, no? crack addiction and lottery life is right around the corner, why stop at kids?
but since it is not true, my long winded response:
alexander is a smart guy. but to say he (or anyone else) is predicting the future with any accuracy that matters is absurd.
- "debt system is collapsing" seems like we've been "collapsing" since the 70s.
- "high rates"? we've been at these rates and above 70s-2010s. and that's only recent history. historic rates have *always* been higher that the last 10 years.
- "The state breached its fundamental social contract with massive casualties."? the state has ALWAYS been corrupt. it's by definition. massive casualties by gov is nothing new. i find this point shocking. he calls out the US gov as being some anomaly in terms of moral compass. it's prob the most sure bet in history: the state, from the church to kings to politicians, have always "broken the social contract".
- Epstein? some portion of people in power, like everyone else in society, are sick individuals. just because we are getting blasted with "news that sells" doesn't mean this is anything new.
- "super intelligence is probably coming". that's right. "probably". and if it does, like everyone else throughout history, we will be surprised.
- modified humans are already here. adding genetics to the mix will makes things "weirder", sure, but that doesn't necessarily mean doomsday. we are all already modified humans through medicine. i cut my eye open to see better, people change hearts and lungs, others get big butts and smaller noses (nothing new).
my synthesis here is: everything he talks about that is "coming" has always been here. we've been living in a fiat-debt based world since the 70s, debt has been with us since the dawn of time, machine intelligence superior to humans on various dimensions is the definition of technology and having 1000x better odds that the next guy "to change the outcomes of your children." is the norm everywhere and always.
no amount of doomsday porn should prevent anyone from attempting to experience a life full of joy. at worst (small chance), agi comes and kills us all. at best (small chance), agi comes and gives us extreme abundance. and the base case? life continues. as it has always has. 1 reply
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