Dan Romero on Farcaster

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https://warpcast.com/~/channel/politics

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Dan Romero pfp

Best argument for why the polls are wrong?

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Chris Carella pfp

I love when you post this stuff. Pure Rorschach test in the replies. Prediction Markets are great! No wait prediction markets are bad! The Polls are all that matter! Oh wait the Polls are wrong!

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Sean Wince 🎩 pfp

Sean Wince 🎩

Well within the margin of error which means the race is still a dead heat

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Jawa pfp

Anecdotally I’ve heard a majority of the polls done in the last 30 days are from outfits that tend to skew right. Flood the zone with polls if you will.

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GENUINE JACK pfp

sample size and bradley effect

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ionspired pfp

Polls are wrong because equal weights for anyone is a subjective approach, oh yeah. The objective approach would be using individual weight corresponding to the voter’s relevant experience, knowledge, skills… …provided by decentralized verification facility we all here are working on together.

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vrypan |--o--| pfp

Why are they wrong?

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Midnight Marauder pfp

Midnight Marauder

@midnightmarauder.eth

Real clear politics has veered right, wasn’t reliable in 22’ An article in The New York Times said that "top political analysts" raised concerns about RealClearPolitics polling averages influenced by polls skewing towards Trump and not adhering to "best practices like person-to-person phone interviews" during the 2020 presidential elections.

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horsefacts pfp

@horsefacts.eth

It's so close that every poll and average is wrong and the only meaningfully predictive thing they can tell us is "it's going to be very close."

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Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩 pfp

Nounish Prof ⌐◧-◧🎩

flip a coin — just as accurate

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Goldy pfp

lack of skin in the game

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Gabriel Ayuso pfp

@gabrielayuso.eth

I don't follow any of this. Does anyone report or at least calculate margins of error? Every dataset, especially polls, will have margins of error. In such a close race there is likely big overlap when considering the margin of errors therefore the results aren't conclusive.

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Jon Commstark pfp

ppl who make the polls know that the viewers won’t look into the methodology

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GIGAMΞSH pfp

Apparently a lot of the polls don't include people didn't vote in 22 or 20 because they're considered unlikely to vote this time, and people are speculating Harris will motivate new female voters.

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Jawa pfp

There’s also an argument made that polls this tight only show us it’s going to be a tight race. Polling has changed a TON in the last 20 years trying to keep up. I’m not sure they’re actually sampling the population well.

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martin ↑ pfp

reversion to the mean

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matthewb pfp

within margin of error atm, outcome is quite likely a coin flip

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𒂭_𒂭 pfp

the turnout itself is higher than expected, and everyone in the margin is a low-propensity respondent.

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Adam pfp

I live in a battle ground state and we know that it literally takes only a thousands of votes to change the whole outcome of the election. 🗳️ Tomorrow I am volunteering for Stand with Crypto to go door knocking and get support for our industry this coming election. 🗳️ I will be casting about our day and my outlook of what my district looks like on our fight for legislation and industry innovation. Hopefully bullish

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jay pfp

I think trump supporters are just more vocal. I haven’t seen a single Harris flag attached to vehicle in my area. I usually don’t go out of my way to express my political views and that includes voluntary polls. Either way, I think this is going to be a close race just as it always is

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