Can Netflix actually close the Warner Bros. deal in its favor? Here’s how Polymarket is currently pricing it: <> Netflix: 75% <> Paramount: 14% <> None by June 30, 2027: 7% <> Comcast: 2.8% But a literal read of the market rules makes one thing clear: this market isn’t trading "who wins eventually", it’s trading who first acquires control over WBD’s core assets. And on that axis, Paramount still has a very real window, even if Netflix is the favorite today ➤ What counts as a win The market resolves in favor of the first entity that acquires control over Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios + streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Deals involving only linear TV networks, news channels, or other non-studio / non-streaming assets do not qualify for resolution ➤ The main trap: announcements don’t count The rules explicitly state that announcements of non-finalized arrangements, including Netflix’s currently announced deal, do not count. In other words: "Netflix announced a deal" = zero for resolution until control is actually acquired ➤ Why the market gives Netflix 75% The market is pricing a scenario where Netflix is the first to push the process all the way to “control acquired” within the deadline That’s effectively a bet on Netflix clearing regulators, closing on time, and not losing initiative on timing ➤ How Paramount can still win at 14% Paramount doesn’t need to "beat Netflix in headlines" It just needs to be the first to acquire control over studios + streaming before June 30, 2027 If Netflix gets stuck in approvals, remedies, or negotiations, and Paramount structures a faster path to control, the market resolves in Paramount’s favor, even if Netflix was the favorite the entire time ➤ The political variable Donald Trump has publicly stated that Netflix’s "massive" market share could make the merger "a problem" and has said he would be personally involved in the approval process That kind of signal tends to favor alternative buyers, not the market leader And this is where the 75% starts to look less obvious Market: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition/will-netflix-close-warner-bros-acquisition?tid=1765988447752&via=gusik4ever
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I analyzed over 2,000 wallets for today's NBA Emirates Cup final 213 smart traders bet on Spurs 135 smart traders chose Knicks but here's the interesting part — those who bet on Knicks are betting 3x larger Question is, who's going to be right ➤ What favors Spurs: <> 57% more wallets with high scores <> 19 traders with score 20+ (that's top 1% of the platform) <> higher average score: 11.17 vs 9.68 ➤ What favors Knicks: <> average position 3x larger: $1,102 vs $335 <> control 25.8% of total market volume (vs 15.5% for Spurs) <> unusual trades in the last 7 hours: $37k on Knicks vs $7.5k on Spurs This means big players are ACTIVELY adding to Knicks positions right now ➤ My take: When smart money quantity says one thing but their bet sizes say another, usually those betting larger are right Plus timing matters. unusual trades show that smart money is buying Knicks NOW, 7 hours before the game They're seeing something others missed ➤ Not financial advice, but if I had to choose, I'd lean toward Knicks Not because of wallet count, but because of their position sizes and aggression in the final hours Game starts in X hours, let's see who was right Market: https://polymarket.com/event/nba-sas-nyk-2025-12-16?via=gusik4ever nfa dyor
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Imagine scrolling X, registering on Polymarket, making 5 bets and your portfolio is up $17k That's what happened with the trader I found this morning In just a few days he made $17k by betting on FDV markets Worth following to see if this continues or was just lucky timing Account: https://polymarket.com/@munji?via=gusik4ever
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