@gusik4ever
this is one of the cleanest Polymarket edges I’ve seen lately
Sabalenka vs Kyrgios is a perfect example of where prediction markets beat sportsbooks
just cleaner pricing on underdogs
➤ sportsbooks price this match:
<> Sabalenka 4.5-4.8
<> Kyrgios 1.20-1.25
market consensus: Kyrgios wins 80%+ of the time
➤ Polymarket prices it:
<> Sabalenka 18¢ (~5.55 equivalent)
<> Kyrgios 84¢ (~1.19 equivalent)
same outcome, 15%+ better payout
this isn't surebet territory. It's value play with asymmetric risk. small stake, convex payoff, structurally better pricing than books offer
➤ why this matters:
not arbitrage, value play with asymmetric setup
small risk, convex payoff, structurally better pricing
if you're taking Sabalenka, Polymarket strictly better than any major book right now
➤ 15% better payout on same bet = real edge
this is the actual use case, finding where books structurally misprice due to risk management
nfa. dyor
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