@gusik4ever

Can Netflix actually close the Warner Bros. deal in its favor? Here’s how Polymarket is currently pricing it: <> Netflix: 75% <> Paramount: 14% <> None by June 30, 2027: 7% <> Comcast: 2.8% But a literal read of the market rules makes one thing clear: this market isn’t trading "who wins eventually", it’s trading who first acquires control over WBD’s core assets. And on that axis, Paramount still has a very real window, even if Netflix is the favorite today ➤ What counts as a win The market resolves in favor of the first entity that acquires control over Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios + streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET Deals involving only linear TV networks, news channels, or other non-studio / non-streaming assets do not qualify for resolution ➤ The main trap: announcements don’t count The rules explicitly state that announcements of non-finalized arrangements, including Netflix’s currently announced deal, do not count. In other words: "Netflix announced a deal" = zero for resolution until control is actually acquired ➤ Why the market gives Netflix 75% The market is pricing a scenario where Netflix is the first to push the process all the way to “control acquired” within the deadline That’s effectively a bet on Netflix clearing regulators, closing on time, and not losing initiative on timing ➤ How Paramount can still win at 14% Paramount doesn’t need to "beat Netflix in headlines" It just needs to be the first to acquire control over studios + streaming before June 30, 2027 If Netflix gets stuck in approvals, remedies, or negotiations, and Paramount structures a faster path to control, the market resolves in Paramount’s favor, even if Netflix was the favorite the entire time ➤ The political variable Donald Trump has publicly stated that Netflix’s "massive" market share could make the merger "a problem" and has said he would be personally involved in the approval process That kind of signal tends to favor alternative buyers, not the market leader And this is where the 75% starts to look less obvious Market: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-close-warner-bros-acquisition/will-netflix-close-warner-bros-acquisition?tid=1765988447752&via=gusik4ever

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