Dan Romero on Farcaster

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https://warpcast.com/~/channel/svd

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Dan Romero pfp

Waymo vs. Tesla robotaxis o3 did this analysis. It originally had Waymo opex / ride higher but I asked it to assume the same. Where do we think this is wrong?

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Keithereum pfp

Here’s where it’s wrong: Tesla doesn’t have L4 self-driving, and never will.

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agusti pfp

there was a very intersting thread on hn a few days ago where a lot of people expressed how they much preferred overpaying for waymos vs real taxi's or ubers, due ot many reasons, like not having to see other people ,cleanliness, and driver safety (human factor is impredictable, machines can fail, but their fail-errors are more known, they dont get a bad day, or do drugs, or whatever a bad driver can do)

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Chaotic Neutral pfp

Chaotic Neutral

All this is assuming perfect working conditions. Tesla does have a lot of operational downtime due to fog, a light morning dew, and/or any degree precipitation that obscures camera view.

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shoni.eth pfp

if all things are roughly equal on ride cost, and rides are available, i'm probably choosing waymo 9/10 time, why risk it

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gFam.live (UrbanGladiator) pfp

gFam.live (UrbanGladiator)

So much of this is wrong. I thought Waymo got their costs way below $200K as LiDAR got much cheaper and they started using KIAs, etc. Tesla is not comparable at the moment... they have staff in their Robotaxis and FSD in Austin already has a bunch of mistakes on video. Texas law is changing that may prevent Tesla's current set up from being used.

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Varun Srinivasan pfp

Varun Srinivasan

vastly underestimating waymo opex. those cars are jags, they are pricey to maintain.

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Johns | johnsgresham.eth pfp

Johns | johnsgresham.eth

Dont see why Wamo could charge more and do more rides per day long term. Most important thing is scale. Seems like Tesla will have 10x+ robotaxis over Waymom

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Kieran Daniels pfp

"the best part is no part." - Elon Musk

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max ↑ pfp

@baseddesigner.eth

prices can be changed quickly easy upsell for tesla to do a subscription etc to keep your settings and such to begin with

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CHRIS DOLINSKI pfp

rides per day for sure

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Andrew pfp

I’ve been following this. There were publicized hiccups in the Tesla rollout — maybe perceived safety will be a continuing issue?

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Greg Robinson pfp

My initial thought was WACC and NPV. Chatgpt raw response: Tesla weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is probably 9%. Waymo probably 14% or so. So 10 year NPV using each WACC: Tesla NPV -> $320,904 Waymo NPV -> $299,769

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Mike 🎩 | dazzle.hl pfp

Mike 🎩 | dazzle.hl

Waymo is a silent killer Today, Waymo covers about 2-3% of the US population. In a year, it will be 15%, in 3 years, more than 50%. And maybe with the help of Tesla FSD autonomous driving will be everywhere soon. One question what will be with taxi drivers 😲 https://x.com/uber/status/1937495464833614002

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Sel pfp

Why does a Waymo cost over $200k

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xCryptoBro pfp

@xcryptobro.eth

Not sure if the rides per day is assuming that the robotaxi is only operational in daytime. Also not sure if the paid supervisor is included.

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