Dan Romero on Farcaster

Dan Romero pfp

When will NFTs come back? 1. If you believe blue chip NFTs — Punks, Autoglyphs, Art Blocks, etc.—are similar to art, then you need them to become and remain popular with high status wealthy people who collect art today. Ownership of said NFT needs to serve a signaling value. 2. In 2021, there was some crypto-to-mainstream crossover, e.g. Jay-Z and Steph Curry, but it didn't last (although Jay-Z is still a Punk pfp). And even in that case, celebrities != high status wealthy people who collect art today. The irony is the ConstitutionDAO villain—Ken Griffin—is the ideal target for becoming interested in NFTs. 3. So how do you change that? Initiatives like @nodefoundation in fancy places like Palo Alto are a good start. Additionally, any time a major trad museum or auction house does something with NFTs, there's incremental progress. 4. But I suspect the two biggest factors will be: 1) generational change (very slow) and 2) increased screen time with next gen VR / AR (nearer term).

32 replies

35 recasts

226 reactions

Dan Romero pfp

5. Apple Vision Pro was a huge disappointment for VR / AR. But it seems like they are working on a cheaper / lighter version and a separate glasses product. If enough of the % of total consumer amount of screen time shifts to VR / AR products over the next few years, I suspect provable rare digital artifacts will become more fashionable.

6 replies

2 recasts

61 reactions

KapaskieVibes pfp

Great breakdown, do you think the next wave of NFT adoption will come more from cultural legitimacy (like museums, collectors) or from tech shifts like AR/VR making them feel more native?

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

max ↑ pfp

@baseddesigner.eth

I’m not sure VR/AR is coming soon Likely stays very niche It’s really hard to beat smartphones on efficiency when doing any digital interactions Most obvious and common of which is typing

2 replies

0 recast

0 reaction

Nicholas Charriere pfp

Nicholas Charriere

NFTs were easily my favorite cultural product out of crypto. I think they will come back or keep existing in some form for sure, they’re just so fun.

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

Garrett pfp

just a matter of time imo the tooling around NFTs for everyday people (normies) has gotten a lot better too just need more well-executed and well-marketed NFT projects

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

Antidote pfp

@0xantidote.eth

AR might be the only reason they come back. For current platforms, outside of niche art projects, I think NFTs won’t come back to the same extent. They are attention primitives and now we also have memecoins and other experiments NFTs have to compete with.

0 reply

0 recast

2 reactions

Almar van der Krogt pfp

Almar van der Krogt

I think ‘true’ art NFTs never left. They might (still) be under the popular radar but the works of artists @leegte.eth @felixfelixfelix @lennyjpg @francoisegamma @kerimsafa @newrafael @ranxdeer @andbc and many, many others (some not on here) never wavered. The slow progress might be in the physical display of works (to support said signaling value) but it seems to me that products like the Samsung Frame 🖼️ TV are getting better, cheaper and more popular.

0 reply

0 recast

6 reactions

Coop pfp

@coopahtroopa.eth

I also think we need to reframe what "come back" looks like. There will always be a market for high-end art, 1/1s, high status PFPs (Punks), etc But what "come back" looks like to me is a net new generation of collectors that want to buy things that are very cheap for the social element - not to flex it like a Rolex. I know there's a lot of doubts that this will ever happen at scale but would like to say what we're doing at @cooprecs and what @rodeodotclub is doing is is a clear path forward here

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

tldr (tim reilly) pfp

tldr (tim reilly)

Agree w all this. Re: importance of signaling, people forget how much PFPs on Twitter were a vehicle for status flex. Buying a punk served as a way to buy 10K+ real, engaged CT followers I think people would still be competing to spend a ton on appreciable assets that also get them followers. But PFP prestige is gone

0 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

Tim pfp

I still think one of the best use cases to mainstream NFTs is gaming. Imagine Fortnite players being able to buy and sell skins. Off the Grid on avax is probably the best example using nft tech in game right now but they’re struggling a little bit to gain traction in the gaming world

1 reply

0 recast

1 reaction

will pfp

i still think there's potential for a utility based revival, but not sure anyone's working on that angle atm https://warpcast.com/w/0x798d72a9

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

jayplayco pfp

1 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

chet pfp

ultimately I think slow burn and the overused “do things that don't scale” will keep the art side of nft objects moving forward. on the ar/vr/mr side I'm mixed. generally I agree it'll play a big part in art experiences. five years might be more optimistic than I’m thinking though. 7-10 is where my head is at because I find its the least used devices among my kids and their peers and we’ll need some time after a broader usage uptick for people to get excited about the new affordances that ar/vr/mr art experiences provide

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Alex pfp

great points. also think a shift towards more recurring usage centric use cases and/or non-speculative may help too (ie Focus Tree gives out garden NFTs for focus sessions) and more non-PFP type of products like Courtyard's collectibles

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Dry Tortuga pfp

Need more experimentation with nfts beyond just the pfp meta!

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

Mark Coull🎩🔵 pfp

Mark Coull🎩🔵

I love the idea of NFTs, I'm not a massive fan of VR even when I first tried it as far back as 2015. Absolutely love AR though and what you can do with it.

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

0xZara.eth🎩 pfp

Exactly! In the metaverse, everything we own, from sneakers to scrolls, is gonna need to be an NFT. 🎮 You can’t flex your digital fit or unlock secret quests with a screenshot. NFTs will be back, because the metaverse won’t run without them. 💾✨

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

cyrus pfp

they probably come back again in a bubble kind of way and then after that's done hopefully there's a moment when we stop talking about NFTs and it's just digital art, and crypto has proliferated enough to make transacting with usdc or eth either 'normal' or obfuscated. not convinced VR is important to this apart from full on immersive experiences

0 reply

0 recast

0 reaction

niftytime pfp

also helpful to never ever lead off by saying NFT lmao and instead framing the discussion around a specific NFT category digital art (with it's own sub-categories), gaming, collectibles etc on the art side, there has been a growing number of extremely thoughtful and savvy collectors like micky enter over the last few years in addition to a larger number of digitally native art patrons doing a lot of work to spread great digital artists and art 24hours.art by @rogerdickerman does a great job with his full daily reports highlighting the daily sales of digital artists and collectors that makes this trend more legible on the legacy institution and gallery side it's interesting. certain developments and acquisitions are obviously net positive, but if you actually peak behind the curtains many places need digital artists more than digital artists need them. that gap is the opportunity for new institutions (node being a good example) to insert themselves and emerge and potentially replace them

0 reply

0 recast

4 reactions