*** IRAN TOWN HALL *** 4:00 PM ET TODAY Experts Discuss the Threat of War With the US and the Future of the Islamic Republic Join Sina Toossi, Negar Mortazavi and Zeteo's Prem Thakker as they unpack the protests in Iran, potential US air strikes, Israeli intervention and more – plus, they're taking audience questions https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_wQm2xK7yRz-KlLfxTct6WA (Is it possible to use @retake or @pinetree or the like to rebroadcast something like that here on Farcaster?)

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In general, it's interesting that many things that were considered bad in European countries five years ago are now considered necessary. Nuclear energy is one example. In the Netherlands, for example, cash. We really needed to get rid of that, but it's now part of the government-recommended "emergency package" for when something goes wrong. Mindset has changed and may continue to change. Geopolitical changes are changing the future of Europe.

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This strikes me as another sober, clear-eyed appraisal of the situation in Iran and likely outcomes of a U.S. attack: [Foreign Policy] Why a U.S. Attack on Iran Would Backfire ❝The chances of American and perhaps Israeli airstrikes on Iran appear to be rising, ostensibly in support of the protests against the regime. U.S. President Donald Trump has been posting increasingly direct threats on social media, and administration officials are leaking copiously about their preparations. Trump appears to be overly impressed by his supposed success in Venezuela and by U.S. airstrikes last year on Iran and has always been contemptuous of experts warning of risks and consequences. Reports from outside the United States indicate that European officials have been consulted about potential targets, and some personnel have reportedly been advised to leave U.S. bases in the Gulf. None of these indicators suggests an attack is a foregone conclusion—Trump might opt for another round of sanctions and cyberattacks—but the signals are worrying. Why would the United States bomb Iran now? It’s only partly about the protests. Israel has been agitating for another round of military action against Iran’s nuclear program—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed the case with Trump during his late December meeting. But the protests, and Iran’s predictably violent repression, offer up an opportunity to act on a long-standing policy demand. Regime change in Iran has been the ultimate goal of American and Israeli hawks for decades. Many people have talked themselves into the idea that the protests have Iran’s regime on the ropes, and that it would take just a little military nudge to push it over the brink. It’s not about promoting democracy in Iran, of course. I think we can all see exactly what Trump thinks of democracy from his actions at home and across the globe (from Venezuela to Ukraine to Denmark to the EU to Gaza). Iranians in the streets may want democracy and certainly want more than the imposition of a pro-American dictator. But Trump has no real concern for what they want, and neither do the many hawks who loudly protest their eternal love and support for the Iranian people. No matter how furious Iranians are with the Islamic Republic, a new Iranian leader arriving on the backs of American bombers will find little love among a fiercely nationalist Iranian public. What kind of bombing might we expect? American and Israeli hawks dream of a Hezbollah-style decapitation strike that eliminates Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the senior leadership of the Islamic Republic and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). But the success of that Israeli attack in 2024, which killed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, is less likely to be replicated in Tehran. Iranian leaders are fully aware of the potential for such a strike. They have spent the last six months rooting out real and imagined spies and potential informants, and are unlikely to offer up an opportunity for a clean kill shot. Even if it somehow succeeded (and Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran should not be underestimated), the most likely post-Khamenei successor regime would be led by the IRGC and hard-line security forces. Much more likely is a short to medium-length campaign to degrade the capabilities of the IRGC and the paramilitary Basij force in order to reduce the repressive capacity of the Iranian state and create an opening for protesters to overwhelm the remaining regime forces. That wouldn’t be as easy in reality as it is on social media. Regime security forces tend to be deployed where the protesters are these days. Bombing security forces will necessarily kill many protesters and scatter the rest for fear of being targeted. Another bombing run against nuclear sites may serve counterproliferation goals but won’t do much to embolden protesters. Given the tendency of Iranians to rally around the flag when bombed by the United States and Israel, the most likely effect of a non-decapitation bombing campaign would be to taper off the protests and ultimately end them. There are also logistical issues with a sustained bombing campaign. Most American military assets are currently deployed in the Caribbean for the quixotic Venezuela campaign, leaving U.S. capabilities in the Gulf at their lowest ebb in a very long time. Supplies of missile interceptors and smart bombs are reportedly running low. And Iran is unlikely to just sit back and take it, raising the risks of a regionwide conflagration at the heart of the world’s oil production. Nor are the Gulf states likely to take up the slack. They are, for the most part, pining for stability, not a conflict that could trigger state failure, refugee flows, and retaliatory attacks across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have both come out against an American attack on Iran. Riyadh shows none of the bloodlust for regime change in Iran that marked the early days of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s tenure in de facto power. The rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran brokered under Chinese auspices a few years ago continues to hold, grounded in Saudi interests in maintaining a reasonably stable environment for economic development. That’s intensified by increasingly clear Saudi concerns about an Israel unbound, not only in Gaza but in military strikes across the region. The sharp Saudi turn against the United Arab Emirates over the last month and active formation of a new military alliance encompassing Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, and some Arab states are clearly meant to balance against this perceived Israeli threat—which an attack on Iran would only exacerbate. U.S. military action right now is unlikely to topple the Iranian regime and unlikely to protect Iranian civilians. Even if Trump’s run of good luck in his foreign-policy gambles continues and the worst potential repercussions are avoided, the strikes will likely have only a marginal direct effect. They will increase Gulf fears of Israeli expansionism, delegitimize and demobilize the protesters confronting the regime, and further normalize episodic military action without legal justification. They may also undermine global support for the sanctions that, for all the human misery they have caused, have also been a primary driver of the economic failures and state capacity degradation that triggered the protests in the first place.❞ https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/14/american-attack-iran-backfire-trump-protests/

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The Great Man theory in action: 2022: Putin expands NATO 2026: Trump expands the EU https://www.euractiv.com/news/trumps-ambitions-in-greenland-push-iceland-closer-to-the-eu/

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https://x.com/shadzey1/status/2011895371820331214?s=46&t=cvL_H_NZ56jlMb21pzo2hQ

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venezuela is claiming that want maduro and cilia back liberate them the dictator is donald trump

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🎯🎯🎯 This piece by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj (founder and CEO of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation) is among the most trenchant recent analyses I've read on the Iran situation. ❝Economic inequality is the single most important issue in Iran. All of the country’s political and social ills pour forth from the crucible of inequality. A successful political transition in Iran requires more than just identifying problems, it requires a positive vision for Iran and solutions to the country’s problems. But no opposition leader, whether inside or outside of the country, has managed to explain how they will deliver economic justice in Iran. Until such a positive vision emerges, there is nothing for protestors to rally around but slogans and a shared expression of anger.❞ https://www.bourseandbazaar.org/vision-iran-initiative-articles/2026/1/7/what-iran-needs-is-a-new-social-revolution Esfandyar Batmanghelidj on Twitter: https://x.com/yarbatman?s=21

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https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260115

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It's wild so many people don't know what the Iran protests started as and how weak they were until MOSSAD got involved. This is like 12 seconds of research into a few non-zionist resources - or even local Iranian opposition resources. You can go deeper, and you'll see even wilder MOSSAD actions, but this much media literacy is required at this media environment. https://x.com/jasonhickel/status/2011435303890751957

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❝Trump’s advisers have so far not been able to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike, the U.S. official and two people familiar with the discussions said, and there is concern that the U.S. may not have all the assets in the region it would need to guard against what administration officials expect would be an aggressive Iranian response.❞ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-want-military-action-iran-swift-decisive-sources-say-rcna254076

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❝The security forces’ loyalty to the regime is the one significant difference I see between Iran today and the Arab Spring uprisings. In Tunisia, the military refused to fire on demonstrators and in Egypt the military leadership forced Mubarak out. Libya’s military was too fragmented and too dependent on foreign recruits to save Qaddafi and his regime. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and Basij paramilitary force, on the other hand, remain steadfast in their support of the Iranian regime. Until such support evaporates – as it did in Syria in 2024 and in Iran itself in 1979 – the current regime will prevail. Survival, however, is different from success. Unless the Iranian regime addresses the root causes of the current unrest – which until now it has been unwilling and unable to do – its own demise is inevitable. As Mark Twain observed, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”❞ https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/is-iran-headed-towards-a-persian-spring/

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I tried to add this image about 3 times now and it doesn't show up.

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If USA bombs Iran, this will be the final confirmation that the entire process of evolving a small merchant protest to a potential massacre was an intel agency job to manufacture the consent. Especially when both Israeli media AND US Intel itself admitted their involvement.

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good follows for Iran info ... Zeteo: https://x.com/zeteo_news Sina Toosi: https://x.com/SinaToossi Negar Mortazavi: https://x.com/NegarMortazavi Prem Thakker: https://x.com/prem_thakker

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He needs to tend to the dumpster fire he created in the US Stay out of France's legal system - The Trump administration is considering sanctions against three French magistrates, according to the German magazine Der Spiegel, causing concern within the French judiciary. The judges in question sentenced Marine Le Pen on March 31, 2025, to four years in prison, including two mandatory years, and five years of ineligibility for embezzlement of public funds. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/01/08/french-judges-alarmed-by-rumors-of-potential-us-sanctions_6749193_4.html

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