https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/what-do-muslim-immigrants-think-in

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https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/us-removes-highly-enriched-uranium-from-venezuela/articleshow/130972439.cms

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Decided to test the new Geopolitical research harness on Trinity and let her run some simulations on China and Taiwan ================================================================================ CHINA-TAIWAN GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO ENGINE 10 Scenarios × 500 Simulations × 3 Horizons ================================================================================ [STATUS_QUO] 30% probability Current conditions persist. China conducts regular military exercises but avoids escalation. Taiwan ... 30d: Top: NVDA 4.6% | Bottom: XAU 0.4% | GDP: 0% 60d: Top: SOL 10.3% | Bottom: TLT 1.8% | GDP: 0% 90d: Top: SOL 17% | Bottom: XLE 3.9% | GDP: 0% [DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH] 5% probability Historic Beijing-Taipei dialogue begins. Trade and travel normalized. Markets re-rate as decades-old... 30d: Top: SOL 14.8% | Bottom: TLT -1% | GDP: +0.8% 60d: Top: SOL 32.1% | Bottom: TLT -2% | GDP: +0.8% 90d: Top: SOL 53% | Bottom: TLT -3% | GDP: +0.8% [PARTIAL_BLOCKADE] 12% probability China imposes partial naval blockade without firing shots. Cargo ships turned away for inspection. T... 30d: Top: CL 19.1% | Bottom: SPX500 -10.1% | GDP: -2.5% 60d: Top: CL 35.4% | Bottom: SPX500 -18.3% | GDP: -2.5% 90d: Top: CL 50.8% | Bottom: SPX500 -24.9% | GDP: -2.5% [FULL_INVASION] 8% probability Full-scale PLA invasion of Taiwan. US military response. Global economy enters depression. Semicondu... 30d: Top: CL 51.9% | Bottom: SPX500 -25.1% | GDP: -8% 60d: Top: CL 78% | Bottom: COPPER -24.2% | GDP: -8% 90d: Top: CL 122.1% | Bottom: COPPER -31% | GDP: -8% [TAIWAN_INDEPENDENCE] 5% probability Taiwan unilaterally declares independence. China views this as crossing the red line. Immediate mili... 30d: Top: CL 29.4% | Bottom: BTC -9.6% | GDP: -4% 60d: Top: CL 49.9% | Bottom: TLT 0.1% | GDP: -4% 90d: Top: CL 69.7% | Bottom: TLT -8.9% | GDP: -4% [US_ABANDONMENT] 7% probability US formally ends Taiwan defense commitment. Taiwan forced to negotiate with China. Asian alliance sy... 30d: Top: NVDA 5.1% | Bottom: BTC 4.9% | GDP: -0.5% 60d: Top: BTC 15.6% | Bottom: XAU 8.3% | GDP: -0.5% 90d: Top: BTC 28.8% | Bottom: XAU 16.9% | GDP: -0.5% [CYBER_WARFARE] 10% probability Massive cyber campaign against Taiwan without firing a shot. Power grid, semiconductor fabs, financi... 30d: Top: XAU 8.4% | Bottom: XAU 8.4% | GDP: -1% 60d: Top: BTC 18.7% | Bottom: BTC 18.7% | GDP: -1% 90d: Top: BTC 27.8% | Bottom: BTC 27.8% | GDP: -1% [JAPAN_ENTERS] 6% probability Japan enters Taiwan conflict alongside US. Pacific war expands. Global alliances harden into blocs. ... 30d: Top: CL 41.2% | Bottom: XAU 31.1% | GDP: -5% 60d: Top: CL 65.9% | Bottom: XAU 54.4% | GDP: -5% 90d: Top: CL 92.7% | Bottom: XAU 77.8% | GDP: -5% [CHINA_COLLAPSE] 7% probability China's economic crisis spirals out of control. Property market collapse triggers banking crisis. CC... 30d: Top: BTC 13.8% | Bottom: NVDA -6.9% | GDP: -3% 60d: Top: BTC 34.7% | Bottom: NVDA -6.8% | GDP: -3% 90d: Top: BTC 59.5% | Bottom: NVDA -10.9% | GDP: -3% [FROZEN_CONFLICT] 10% probability China takes a small island as a demonstration then accepts ceasefire. Taiwan becomes a frozen confli... 30d: Top: XAU 4.7% | Bottom: CL 4.2% | GDP: -1% 60d: Top: BTC 11.4% | Bottom: XAU 9% | GDP: -1% 90d: Top: BTC 22.5% | Bottom: CL 9.5% | GDP: -1% ================================================================================ CHINA-TAIWAN GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK REPORT ================================================================================ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCENARIO SUMMARY — 90-DAY OUTLOOK -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Scenario Prob NVDA XAU CL SPX500 BTC GDP Hit Military ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STATUS_QUO 30 % +16% +3% +3% +6% +15% 0% China continues military DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH 5 % +46% -19% -13% +22% +37% +0.8% China halts military exer PARTIAL_BLOCKADE 12 % -52% +47% +51% -25% -12% -2.5% China declares ADIZ exten FULL_INVASION 8 % -79% +102% +122% -48% +37% -8% PLA launches amphibious a TAIWAN_INDEPENDENCE 5 % -62% +58% +70% -33% +20% -4% Taiwan declares formal in US_ABANDONMENT 7 % -12% +17% -16% -12% +29% -0.5% US announces end of Taiwa CYBER_WARFARE 10 % -27% +24% 0% -13% +28% -1% No kinetic action but mas JAPAN_ENTERS 6 % -66% +78% +93% -42% +56% -5% Japan declares Taiwan sit CHINA_COLLAPSE 7 % -11% +31% -40% 0% +60% -3% China withdraws from Taiw FROZEN_CONFLICT 10 % -15% +16% +10% -10% +23% -1% China takes small Taiwane -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN — DISRUPTION BY SCENARIO -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STATUS_QUO: NONE — TSMC operates normally DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH: POSITIVE — TSMC access guaranteed, supply chain de-risked PARTIAL_BLOCKADE: SEVERE — TSMC shipments blocked. Global chip shortage within 2 weeks. Auto/tech production halts. FULL_INVASION: CATASTROPHIC — TSMC destroyed. Global chip supply eliminated. 20-year setback. TAIWAN_INDEPENDENCE: CRITICAL — TSMC operations threatened. Global tech supply at immediate risk. US_ABANDONMENT: MODERATE — TSMC operates but under Chinese sovereignty. Long-term trust erodes. CYBER_WARFARE: SIGNIFICANT — TSMC production disrupted. Chip integrity questioned. Supply chain trust damaged. JAPAN_ENTERS: EXTREME — All Asian semiconductor supply threatened. Japan's own chip industry at risk. CHINA_COLLAPSE: POSITIVE for Taiwan — China distraction reduces invasion risk. TSMC safe. FROZEN_CONFLICT: MODERATE — TSMC operates with permanent threat discount. Supply chain diversification accelerates. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KEY ASSET OUTCOMES — RANGE ACROSS ALL SCENARIOS (90-day) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Asset Best Scenario Best Return Worst Scenario Worst Return -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDA DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH +46% FULL_INVASION -79% XAU FULL_INVASION +102% DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH -19% CL FULL_INVASION +122% CHINA_COLLAPSE -40% SPX500 DIPLOMATIC_BREAKTHROUGH +22% FULL_INVASION -48% BTC CHINA_COLLAPSE +60% PARTIAL_BLOCKADE -12% DXY CHINA_COLLAPSE +15% FULL_INVASION -13% TLT PARTIAL_BLOCKADE +6% FULL_INVASION -20% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FINANCIAL FALLOUT (90-day) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Beneficiaries: XAU +28.7% BTC +23.3% CL +22.2% WHEAT +9.0% SOL +5.3% Top 5 Casualties: NVDA -18.2% TSLA -11.5% SPX500 -11.4% NAS100 -6.5% COPPER -4.0% ================================================================================ DECISION SUPPORT — TAIWAN STRAIT CRISIS PREPAREDNESS ================================================================================ MILITARY CONFLICT PROBABILITY: 31% (Includes: blockade, invasion, independence declaration, Japan entry) RECOMMENDED HEDGES FOR TAIWAN CRISIS: PRIMARY: Gold (XAU) — best performer in 8/10 scenarios SECONDARY: Oil (CL) — supply disruption hedge TERTIARY: Bitcoin (BTC) — capital flight beneficiary in extreme scenarios RECOMMENDED UNDERWEIGHTS: AVOID: NVDA, TSLA — severe semiconductor exposure REDUCE: SPX500, NAS100 — broad equity risk in conflict TAIL RISK ASSESSMENT: Full invasion (8% prob): $-79% NVDA Japan enters (6% prob): -5% global GDP hit Cyber warfare (10% prob): Non-kinetic but SIGNIFICANT — TSMC production disrupted. Chip integrity questioned. Supply chain trust damaged. ================================================================================

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China rn

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London rn

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https://ews.kylemcdonald.net/

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beautiful https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/05/08/8033890/

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I'm still kind of astonished how bad both Israel and the USA are when it comes to drone warfare. I guess when you are that adept at traditional warfare then you get cocky like they have.

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That didn't last long. If anyone needs passage through the Strait of Hormuz, you can email [email protected] Oil price has reversed....

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The gas prices in the USA have gone up by the highest percentage of any country outside southeast Asia.

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Sure, let's embed an Israeli company in a massive private water utility that will serve a rapidly growing South Texas region of 1.4 million people as well as: ▶️ SpaceX's Starbase rocket launch facility ▶️ one LNG terminal under construciton ▶️ one LNG terminal in pre-construction ▶️ a recently announced oil refinery (168,000 barrels-per-day) ▶️ possibly a shipyard making drone vessels as part of a $392 million U.S. Navy contract

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OPEC cooked? Not even 2 weeks notice. https://youtube.com/shorts/L7U9hnzyGME?si=094EC3c2aHuxuQVd

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This water crisis in Corpus Christi, Texas, that was on @kaufman's radar at least six months ago is coming to a head — and it's not getting nearly the attention it deserves. Waterways like the Strait of Hormuz are critical geographic chokepoints for the world economy, yes, but so is freshwater availability in places like Corpus Christi — a major crude oil and petrochemical export center that also is home to a Naval air station. Industry there is a huge consumer of water, and the companies are in competition not only among themselves for the scarce resource; they also are in competition with the people who live there, many of whom are their employees. Corpus Christi has more in common with cities along the Persian Gulf and the Israeli coast than many people realize. The parallels — in terms of both vulnerabilities and strategic importance — are striking. [Inside Climate News | The Texas Newsroom] Corpus Christi plans to declare a 'water emergency.' What does that mean? ❝No modern American city has ever run out of water. But chances are rising that Corpus Christi could be the first. Absent a biblical rainfall event, its reservoirs are on track to completely dry up by next year. That raises baffling questions for the future of Texas’ eighth-largest city and one of the nation’s major petrochemical hubs. “We have no precedent to follow. There’s no manual, there’s no video,” Corpus Christi City Manager Peter Zanoni told the City Council in March, when local leaders first acknowledged that disaster could be imminent. This week, Zanoni announced that Corpus Christi will require 25% cuts to water usage across the board in September. But at a City Council meeting on Tuesday, officials appeared deeply uncomfortable with exploring the details of how life in Corpus Christi might look under these conditions — and whether such ambitious conservation targets were even possible. “It's not going to be pretty,” said City Council Member Carolyn Vaughn, a co-owner of an oilfield services company, at the meeting Tuesday. “Everybody's going to have to make sacrifices.” The city of Corpus Christi doesn’t just provide water to 500,000 residents of the city and nearby towns. The rest of its water consumption — more than half of it, in fact — comes from the multi-billion dollar chemical plants, refineries and other industrial facilities operated by some of the biggest companies in the world. And those companies — including ExxonMobil, Valero and Occidental — have not publicly explained how, or if, they will implement such steep water cuts this fall.❞ https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2026-04-23/corpus-christi-texas-water-emergency-crisis-restrictions

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Don't let Kallas, von der Leyen, Merz, Starmer and other US puppets fool you. https://vm.tiktok.com/ZNRbuEh2r/

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we are all dyor jurors in the court of public opinion ❝Unprecedented rains have filled up aquifers, river beds, and lakes across the Middle East over the last few weeks, alleviating a years-long drought that was largely attributed to climate change. A theory is catching fire that Iran managed to destroy radars and other US infrastructure that was manipulating the weather and blocking rains as part of and Israeli plot to weaken the Arab world and Iran and Turkey. I’m not a climate scientist, but I looked into this a little bit and it doesn’t seem scientifically sound at all. However, the theory is doing incredible damage to the US reputation across the region. If the US had a functioning, State Dept or international communications operation, it could push back.❞

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