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Njal

@cryptonjal

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358 Followers


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I knew that spam accounts are created en masse, but it surprised me that some were very easy to filter out on Dune surprised me. It gives an insight into the success rate of 'spam' accounts. - 3,063 accounts that showed the same behaviour in groups of more than 15; - There even seems to be a group of 500 to 800 accounts that have almost all received a spam label 0 after around 13 replies and 13 likes (disposable accounts); - From these 3,063 accounts, there were 93 with a label 2, and 2 without a label. That's a success rate of 96.9%, the other 3.1% are false positives, and no labels. - A large proportion of the accounts not identified as spam (89) were in smaller groups, which may suggest a different strategy of these groups of accounts. Here, the success rate is 90.4%. 9.4% of accounts slip through.
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Based on data from @mvr and me, about the 1st 10k Pro subscribers: - 109 FIDs were created after the announcement (1.1%) - 1,404 FIDs were created during the event (first cast during or after the event) (14.0%) - 2,460 FIDs were spammy users based on a mix of spam labels and Neynar score (24.6%) - 816 FIDs without a judgement about spammy behaviour (8.2%) - 5,211 FIDs where not spammy (52.1%) with 150 FIDs with where little active and/or low engagement Measured only by spam label, 5,988 FIDs (59.9%) has a label 2. This is 26.0% in the total Farcaster population, so there is a higher change of good behaving casters if someone has a Pro account, but spam measurements like spam labels and Neynar score are better. Btw, a Neynar score around 0.5 is neutral, it has no opinion whether an account is spammy or not. The more the number differences from 0.5 the stronger the signal is for the behaviour. All new created FID starts with a score of 0.5. See also for conclusion per FID: https://dune.com/queries/5200345
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I think that it is more complex under the surface. Yes, rewards seems to have effect on the mix of casting, replying and liking (I will shorten this to CRL), but mainly for casters with spam label 0. Besides that, there's also an extra effect: after the huge increase in ETH-price appreciation, namely from 11 May. This also changes the CRL-mix of spam label 0. Before general available rewards, the CRL-mix was more stable for spam label 0. The CRL-mix of spam label 2 is still stable, and changes gradual overtime (if you look very well). Only after the ETH-price appreciation, the amount of engagement changes, both spam label 0 and 2. This result in relative higher percentage of label 0 cast, and a relative higher percentage of label 2 replies. So, both Rewards as market circumstances change casting behaviour, but spam label 0 is more opportunistic.
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