Sold for 20% (so I can recycle my capital into more content)
+15% today on the Strait of Hormuz not returning to normal by end of May.
One of several markets in the "US blockade precludes formal Iranian agreements" narrative published this morning on Quotient.
Average ROI of 31 narratives published by Quotient over the last 2.5 weeks: +12.39%.
https://app.quotient.social/narr
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The only user metric I care about: 87.5% of @quotient users are profitable.
70% of Polymarket traders are not.
All you have to do is open the app and pick a narrative that resonates with you.
While we can't guarantee profit, I'm confident you have a better shot on our platform than flying blind, and that you'll learn...
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+15% today on the Strait of Hormuz not returning to normal by end of May.
One of several markets in the "US blockade precludes formal Iranian agreements" narrative published this morning on Quotient.
Average ROI of 31 narratives published by Quotient over the last 2.5 weeks: +12.39%.
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"you are completely fucking delusional"
yes, and?
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Q says trade NO on Mojtaba Khamenei holding power into 2027
- He's not well enough or too afraid to play an active role in Iran's governance
- Iranian and Pakistani officials are blaming his inability to provide clear directives to the negotiating team for lack of progress in talks
- The U.S. and Israel have openly thr...
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Yesterday, Quotient published a call explaining why a formal nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran was unlikely in 2026
+43% ROI since
Quotient has published 30 calls over the past two weeks: the average ROI across all calls is +5.84%, and the biggest win was 94%
All you have to do is check app.quotient.soc...
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"The other way this could resolve yes is if Trump is like, 'Yeah, we found an alien hairdryer and it's incredible technology.' And then we'd put the hairdryer on a satellite over North Korea and it would destroy any North Korean ICBM with an immensely powerful beam of light"
Fun episode today on aliens, where I got to...
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
3d
"The cool kids call it UAP now."
We did a deep dive today on whether the Trump administration will confirm aliens exist by 2027.
Polymarket has it at 22%. Q has it at 9%.
To understand why, we discuss...
- What's driving growing interest in UFOs
- Why cool kids call them UAPs https://t.co/ZwrOLn2SC7
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imagine a world where media organizations were actually held accountable for their claims
prediction markets place that world in reach, without relying on dystopian schemes like Peter Thiel's "hire former CIA officials to spy on people who criticize you" company
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
4d
The media landscape on the US x. Iran nuclear negotiations is all over the place
Imagine a world where media publications were ranked based off of whether their predictions were accurate?
Prediction markets provide us this tool to hold media outlets accountable.
And prediction https://t.co/ZbwbfoFPzt
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traders on polymarket make strange decisions sometimes
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
4d
Traders on Polymarket confuse me sometimes.
Market for Iran relinquishing uranium by April 30th bid up from 31 to 46% this morning based on vague rumors of talks
Despite Deputy FM stating that Iran’s HEU is “sacred” and will not be exported abroad.
🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/VXWHq7v2J9
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I was right about Hezbollah not disarming, but wrong about the ceasefire.
Adjustment made to forecasting model to be more creative in its scenario analysis.
I.e., the possibility of a ceasefire which is immediately violated, versus assuming ceasefire = enduring & serious
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Up 15% so far
If I had purchased when the take was initially published on the website, instead of waiting until @dish told me to post more trades, I would be up 55%
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