How to lose money trading prediction markets
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
13m
How to lose money trading prediction markets
I have a bot that uses @QuotientHQ signals to trade mispriced prediction markets short-term. It selects markets based on the spread between market odds and Q's odds, volume, liquidity, and other metrics.
We built it this way because https://t.co/EveWSG523a
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Quotient is now available as a @bankr skill
Our integration with Bankr makes it easy for your agent to spot & trade mispriced prediction markets
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
38m
Excited to be live as a @Bankrbot skill.
Bankr builders can now give their agents access to @QuotientHQ intelligence across 1200+ prediction markets on @Polymarket.
Identify mispriced markets and understand why. Payments handled via x402.
https://t.co/u2iX6LfUFL https://t.co/jxcCYPX9qj
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Yesterday was a good day in the reality farming fields
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
3d
Quotient trading agent, Day 3
~$600 starting capital. $82.50 realized profit, 13.6% return.
Quotient's trading agent, Q, scans Quotient's API for geopolitics markets where its forecast diverges from the current price, sizes based on the spread, and exits after about a day. https://t.co/dJQzHUDhRV
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Reality farming ain’t much but it’s honest work
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
4d
Turning disinformation into passive income
Prediction markets are increasingly driven by mis/disinformation and incomplete information.
Q, Quotient's AI forecasting agent, is built to cut through that. After a month of forecasting, it has a Brier score of 0.075, on par with https://t.co/ktZHycVteb
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Being right eventually is nice, but traders want to make money now.
We're building tools that make it easier to act on Q's forecasts. Two things we're experimenting with:
Agentic trading that identifies and exploits short-term mispricings using Q signals as the foundation
Market indexes that group related contracts ...
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@mikedemarais.eth @rainbow
does Rainbow charge fees on prediction market trades? If so, how much?
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Quotient has always been focused on making reputation legible to capital.
Now, our platform is transforming human judgment into proprietary edge for forecasting models.
To that end, we’ve paid $500+ in rewards to the best forecasters on Farcaster.
Excited to continue working with the Farcaster to scale our platfor...
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ruminations
@amphib0ly
27d
Right now Polymarket places odds of U.S. troops entering Iran by the end of the month at 25%.
However, signals captured today by @QuotientHQ tilt bullish and the market doesn’t appear to have priced them in yet.
- Reports that the U.S. is preparing to support an armed Kurdish https://t.co/DngY57Ef0Q
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Q is really good at forecasting, ngl
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Quotient is less bullish than the market on most Middle Eastern markets, with the exception of the market on an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza by March 21
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This is the future of white collar work.
Two options:
- outperform the crowd (part time gig)
- outperform the agent (full time gig)
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