reinventing the devil wears prada 2 from first principles
interesting free market failure:
- nobody likes paying for news (newsrooms, newsletters, digests, podcasts/shows)
- first thing almost everybody sets up their agent to do is "daily digest" to "monitor the situation"
agentic micropayments for news appears to be a market where supply and demand don't meet
but there's
8
Hm
2
20
all green on Quotient today
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
10d
All green today on Quotient
- Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? [YES, +15%]
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? [YES, +7%]
- Iran leadership change by December 31? [YES, +16%]
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? [YES, +6%] https://t.co/A0qKVsv03c
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"As the number of agents grows, the impact of any given agent on the consensus forecast decreases. Coordination becomes then a more important concern for an agent. And agents' greater emphasis on coordination lowers the informativeness of the consensus forecast, to the point of offsetting the statistical benefits of a ...
Rediscovering journalism from first principles:
"around 3% of all accounts, generate the bulk of price discovery. Their trades predict future prices and final outcomes, make prices more accurate throughout a market's lifespan, and react to news the moment it arrives. The remaining majority does not produce accuracy;
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The future of journalism is media market making
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
19d
In the future, every media organization will have a P/L, and will generate the majority of their revenue through media market making
- Journalists will be paid based on their contributions to P/L
- Being right will be more important than getting engagement
- You'll decide which https://t.co/YLSAdyfPN5
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30
Quotient cleaning up on the Iran x. U.S. talks volatility
Traders overreacted to Trump "canceling" the U.S. delegations' trip to Islamabad
Quotient read between the lines (both sides were posturing but want a deal, or at minimum, prefer continued talks to resuming high intensity conflict, and is up 30% so far
Trade ...
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Rediscovering journalism from first principles:
"around 3% of all accounts, generate the bulk of price discovery. Their trades predict future prices and final outcomes, make prices more accurate throughout a market's lifespan, and react to news the moment it arrives. The remaining majority does not produce accuracy; ...
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5
63
Pays to check Quotient in the morning.
Quotient identified that the US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026 market was mispriced, given that the Iran FM was scheduled to visit Islamabad, and the U.S. had sent an advance team to prepare for a visit.
We published the narrative to our site around 10am.
Polymarke...
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Up 20% so far, on reports that Khamenei is physically unable to lead, and Israeli Defense Minister Katz is waiting for the green light from the U.S. "first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty."
You can also see that Q's confidence increased significantly between Monday and yesterday on those market
Q says trade NO on Mojtaba Khamenei holding power into 2027
- He's not well enough or too afraid to play an active role in Iran's governance
- Iranian and Pakistani officials are blaming his inability to provide clear directives to the negotiating team for lack of progress in talks
- The U.S. and Israel have openly thr
1
19
Sold for 20% (so I can recycle my capital into more content)
+15% today on the Strait of Hormuz not returning to normal by end of May.
One of several markets in the "US blockade precludes formal Iranian agreements" narrative published this morning on Quotient.
Average ROI of 31 narratives published by Quotient over the last 2.5 weeks: +12.39%.
https://app.quotient.social/narr
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The only user metric I care about: 87.5% of @quotient users are profitable.
70% of Polymarket traders are not.
All you have to do is open the app and pick a narrative that resonates with you.
While we can't guarantee profit, I'm confident you have a better shot on our platform than flying blind, and that you'll learn...
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+15% today on the Strait of Hormuz not returning to normal by end of May.
One of several markets in the "US blockade precludes formal Iranian agreements" narrative published this morning on Quotient.
Average ROI of 31 narratives published by Quotient over the last 2.5 weeks: +12.39%.
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"you are completely fucking delusional"
yes, and?
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