ruminations
@amphib0ly
5d
Right now Polymarket places odds of U.S. troops entering Iran by the end of the month at 25%.
However, signals captured today by @QuotientHQ tilt bullish and the market doesn’t appear to have priced them in yet.
- Reports that the U.S. is preparing to support an armed Kurdish https://t.co/DngY57Ef0Q
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Q is really good at forecasting, ngl
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Quotient is less bullish than the market on most Middle Eastern markets, with the exception of the market on an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza by March 21
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This is the future of white collar work.
Two options:
- outperform the crowd (part time gig)
- outperform the agent (full time gig)
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Q, Quotient's AI superforecaster, is developing an impressive track record.
quotient.substack.com/p/iran-imax-...
Big thanks to everyone here who is contributing to Quotient's forecast by participating in Signal, our forecasting miniapp!
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Who will forecast better?
- Q, our forecasting agent
- Verified humans on World
- Farcaster users with high quotient scores
Congrats to @kazani, the top performing forecaster across our World and Farcaster forecasting mini apps!
Top performers will receive biweekly rewards that scale with our revenue.
Transform ...
We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster.
Signal is simple.
Read a headline.
Pick a direction.
Earn rewards for accurate calls.
Start here: https://farcaster.quotient.social
Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the predic
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The classic “get them to agree to a deal by threatening them with secret weapons derived from reverse engineered alien tech”
ruminations
@amphib0ly
17d
Odds on the @Polymarket alien disclosure in 2026 market jumped from 12 to 22% after Trump posted that he directed the DOD and other agencies to disclose UFO files.
Q, the @QuotientHQ agent remains skeptical, placing the odds at 6%.
“The most likely world looks like this: https://t.co/td1cfNgurx
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Nice call by Q, the @quotient forecasting agent. In its first run, Q assessed that the odds of U.S. strike by February 21 were 97%, while the market still priced the odds at 74%
Accuracy matters for businesses and investors making decisions based on prediction markets. Quotient draws on humans and agents to deliver th...
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