i don't think the organization with the ak47 on their flag is going to disarm while they're being attacked
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
1d
The highest asymmetric upside opportunity on Polymarket right now is betting no on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market.
The market prices the odds at 69%, Quotient prices the odds at 4%.
Tl;dr
- Conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, despite ongoing negotiations
- https://t.co/BJYuzqVLOg
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Quotient focuses on the hardest hitting questions, like how often Brian Johnson has sex and whether he'll post about it
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1d
Episode 02 is live.
Iran uranium surrender market is at 49%. Q says 7%. Greenland acquisition is at 17%. Q says 3%.
@amphib0ly and @Shira_LES break down what was actually on the table in Islamabad, why resolution criteria matter more than headlines, and where the crowd is https://t.co/UAawfT5TZi
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x.com/QuotientHQ/s...
61% ROI if you bought today's top narrative on Quotient
Average ROI for the day was 11%
If you trade prediction markets, checking the app each morning is massively +EV
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
3d
If you trade prediction markets, one of the highest +EV habits you can build is reading Quotient each morning.
Every day we publish narratives on mispriced markets.
Today's best call:
"Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?"
Polymarket had it at https://t.co/32YvncMm4P
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Quotient's first stream is up!
We will be posting several times a week to cover the stories behind mispriced World Events prediction markets.
Starting with our next stream, all narratives discussed will be available for purchase in our app: app.quotient.social
Streaming is very hard, but the opportunity to p...
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Used Quotient's new narratives feature to earn a 30% return today on the "Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?" market
We're trying to make it as easy as possible to get paid for reading the news.
I must say - it feels good to make money by being right about something that actually matt...
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Sneak peak from Quotient's inaugural stream:
@shira correctly calls that another Praise be to Allah was coming from Trump this week, before I foolishly timeline FUDD her
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Betting against Bibi is risky business
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
6d
Traders on Polymarket are underestimating Bibi's resilience and the complexity of forming a new Israeli government.
The markets:
- "Netanyahu out by 2026", Polymarket: 43%, Quotient: 22%
- "Will Naftali Bennett be the next PM?" , Polymarket: 24%, Quotient: 18%
Why they're https://t.co/10cqCGLACr
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Copy trading is a scourge
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
7d
Copy trading is the easiest way to lose money trading world events prediction markets.
Exhibit A: "US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30th."
Yesterday, the market put the odds of Trump announcing armed support for Iranian opposition groups at 11%. Which https://t.co/rXndqBAiIH
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Copy trading is a scourge that erodes your finances and ability to think independently
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5/5
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Daily reality farming update
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Big returns by my Quotient-powered trading agent yesterday on Iran.
Want to build your own? Reach out, and I'll personally onboard you.
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
16d
My agent made two calls on Iran markets yesterday.
- U.S. forces enter Iran by April 30? → No | ROI: +26.56%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? → No | ROI: +12.5%
The agent forecasts the conflict will continue but ground operations are unlikely. https://t.co/Cig9dma0Vv
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