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what if there's more to quotient than meets the eye?
ruminations
@amphib0ly
1d
what if there is more to predicting the future than being smart, or reading a lot, or being lucky?
in the Quotient app, different users have access to the same curated prediction market opportunities, yet some do much better than others
what if there is something innate about https://t.co/qVQQS7e5aU
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day #9
ruminations
@amphib0ly
1d
gm — today is day #9 of more than 50% of Quotient traders being profitable when they trade w/Q.
- 52% profitable
- $43,000 volume
- +$3,000 net P/L
- +6.8% net return
our #1 trader has won on everything from U.S./Iran conflict to Spider-Man box office numbers to when the Gemini
quotient is social
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x.com/amphib0ly/st...
trade btc on kalshi multiple times everyday with Q
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born to trade geopolitics
resigned to trading magical internet money
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things you can trade w/Quotient
"but Q just predicts geopolitics"
"but Q just predicts geopolitics and elections"
"but Q just predicts geopolitics and elections and culture"
"okay Q just predicts geopolitics and elections and culture and tech & ai and business, and btc and eth"
"okay but Q just predicts prediction markets, they're small"
"okay, so Q
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"but Q just predicts geopolitics"
"but Q just predicts geopolitics and elections"
"but Q just predicts geopolitics and elections and culture"
"okay Q just predicts geopolitics and elections and culture and tech & ai and business, and btc and eth"
"okay but Q just predicts prediction markets, they're small"
"okay, so Q ...
ruminations
@amphib0ly
4d
Working with data, it's important to keep an open mind.
It's hard to predict what data will be useful, or how. If you make assumptions about what your data will be useful for, how, or why, you may inadvertently foreclose a very valuable path.
For instance, @QuotientHQ started https://t.co/9UD1Lw1l6D
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if youre trading off headlines you're too late
ruminations
@amphib0ly
6d
This went well
5 days ago, Q said it was more bullish on Gold than any other commodity
It recommended 5 gold trades on Kalshi and went 5/5
+33.8%
+75.4%
+17.8%
+26.9%
+62.3%
This was days before reporting on Bessent's interventions in bond markets sparked an investor flight https://t.co/luX9bbWQMO
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trade silver on @quotient
ruminations
@amphib0ly
8d
when you view a commodity on Quotient, you can see whether Q is long or short on the asset, and see key forecasts made by Q positioned on the assets price chart
Q has been long silver for over a week, so I went long Silver on @Hyperliquid and @Kalshi
Today, Silver is up 6% to https://t.co/XACbPArEIA
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q is a very good forecaster
ruminations
@amphib0ly
8d
Prediction markets are a leading indicator for real-world asset prices like oil, natural gas, copper, gold, and silver.
Q is a leading indicator for prediction markets.
Over the last 60 days, Q was 8.44% more accurate than Polymarket by Brier score.
(n = 965 forecasts across https://t.co/xl3SVmmMPI
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