imagine a world where media organizations were actually held accountable for their claims
prediction markets place that world in reach, without relying on dystopian schemes like Peter Thiel's "hire former CIA officials to spy on people who criticize you" company
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
21h
The media landscape on the US x. Iran nuclear negotiations is all over the place
Imagine a world where media publications were ranked based off of whether their predictions were accurate?
Prediction markets provide us this tool to hold media outlets accountable.
And prediction https://t.co/ZbwbfoFPzt
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traders on polymarket make strange decisions sometimes
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
24h
Traders on Polymarket confuse me sometimes.
Market for Iran relinquishing uranium by April 30th bid up from 31 to 46% this morning based on vague rumors of talks
Despite Deputy FM stating that Iran’s HEU is “sacred” and will not be exported abroad.
🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/VXWHq7v2J9
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I was right about Hezbollah not disarming, but wrong about the ceasefire.
Adjustment made to forecasting model to be more creative in its scenario analysis.
I.e., the possibility of a ceasefire which is immediately violated, versus assuming ceasefire = enduring & serious
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Up 15% so far
If I had purchased when the take was initially published on the website, instead of waiting until @dish told me to post more trades, I would be up 55%
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any non-russian mutuals with experience living in, working in / or on topics related to, russia?
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x.com/QuotientHQ/s...
cruise ships, the sanctions implications of paying tolls to the IRGC navy, why Trump (probably) wont invade Cuba, and a shiny forehead
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
3d
Episode 03 is live.
A cruise ship sailed through the Strait of Hormuz this week. We had questions.🛳️🙀
@amphib0ly and @Shira_LES unpack why Q thinks the markets on both the strait reopening (Polymarket 39% / Q 2%) and a US invasion of Cuba (25% / 7%) are mispriced.
Plus https://t.co/XavVhaspYV
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i don't think the organization with the ak47 on their flag is going to disarm while they're being attacked
jordan olmstead
@amphib0ly
5d
The highest asymmetric upside opportunity on Polymarket right now is betting no on the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market.
The market prices the odds at 69%, Quotient prices the odds at 4%.
Tl;dr
- Conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, despite ongoing negotiations
- https://t.co/BJYuzqVLOg
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Quotient focuses on the hardest hitting questions, like how often Brian Johnson has sex and whether he'll post about it
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
5d
Episode 02 is live.
Iran uranium surrender market is at 49%. Q says 7%. Greenland acquisition is at 17%. Q says 3%.
@amphib0ly and @Shira_LES break down what was actually on the table in Islamabad, why resolution criteria matter more than headlines, and where the crowd is https://t.co/UAawfT5TZi
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x.com/QuotientHQ/s...
61% ROI if you bought today's top narrative on Quotient
Average ROI for the day was 11%
If you trade prediction markets, checking the app each morning is massively +EV
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
7d
If you trade prediction markets, one of the highest +EV habits you can build is reading Quotient each morning.
Every day we publish narratives on mispriced markets.
Today's best call:
"Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?"
Polymarket had it at https://t.co/32YvncMm4P
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Quotient's first stream is up!
We will be posting several times a week to cover the stories behind mispriced World Events prediction markets.
Starting with our next stream, all narratives discussed will be available for purchase in our app: app.quotient.social
Streaming is very hard, but the opportunity to p...
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Used Quotient's new narratives feature to earn a 30% return today on the "Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?" market
We're trying to make it as easy as possible to get paid for reading the news.
I must say - it feels good to make money by being right about something that actually matt...
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