Q isn't always right x.com/QuotientHQ/s...
We are constantly working to improve Q, but one thing I've found is to trust my gut
If I feel good about a position and Q feels good? Generally wins.
If I don't feel good and Q doesn't feel good? Generally loses.
If Q feels good and I don...
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
4h
We got this one wrong, and we're sharing why.
Polymarket had the Bank of Russia cutting rates in July at 62 cents. We said No at 38 cents. The market resolved Yes.
Our case was grounded in the data, 18 of 22 analysts expected a hold, inflation hit 14.7%, a fuel crisis was https://t.co/cZwmcbp4FA
2
3
never was able to get over the name "flavio" ngl
ruminations
@amphib0ly
5h
Just bought Q's signal of the day - YES on Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva winning the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
he was having a nice lil run-up earlier in the year until he got crushed with a corruption scandal
According to Q, less than two months out, Lula, fondly https://t.co/1DXs32GmcY
3
reality farming aint much, but it's honest work
ruminations
@amphib0ly
17h
productive day reality farming with Q
- two wins shorting WTI crude (live signal)
- win shorting ETH (experimental signal)
- loss longing NATGAS (experimental signal)
i'm incredibly bullish on using our prediction market signals to trade assets with deeper liquidity and better https://t.co/AeUkk5U6tg
7
using Q with my agent makes me wonder whether we should host an interface at all, or just give people the tools to render the interface they need locally & dynamically
ruminations
@amphib0ly
1d
getting really useful feedback on the @QuotientHQ API from early users
interestingly, most of the feedback/friction has been from the mechanics of having an agent pay for things, versus the data itself, e.g.
- spend authorization (per purchase, or set user policy)
- provisioning https://t.co/OhkSib3DiW
2
2
10
x.com/amphib0ly/st...
love some good diacritical marks
ruminations
@amphib0ly
1d
Felt like branching out of the iran / strait of hormuz trades into something less stressful and where I might learn something
Q believes Katharina Pötter, the incumbent mayor of Osnabrück Germany, is under-priced to win her re-election bid
Osnabrück is best known for being https://t.co/Kge9OAkCOL
1
monitor serenely
ruminations
@amphib0ly
2d
several people asked about monitoring their perps and prediction market positions within quotient
you can now link polymarket & hyperliquid wallets to your account, and view the status of your positions as the market moves / Q's forecasts shift
each position with a market https://t.co/2ZMcIOAdeF
3
israel and chill
ruminations
@amphib0ly
2d
Felt like a more chill trade today, so running back NO on Iran x. Israel Ceasefire, this time through August 15th
Q is at 92 cents, market at 86 cents
To the extent that threats are being exchanged in the region those threats are related to the U.S. and Gulf allies over the SOH https://t.co/6pale4Oulu
1
1
10
x.com/amphib0ly/st...
Compounding judgment
1
x.com/RussROI/stat...
looking forward to people figuring out the value of compounding data
Russ
@RussROI
3d
Alright finally had time to do some digging into @QuotientHQ, and despite me blasting them about their token strategy, the product is real, clean, and effective. Usually with this type of product, teams try to cheat the system w/ hiding losses, but they seem to be operating above https://t.co/cCHAp55Wl1
2
4
x.com/amphib0ly/st...
Excited for the meta to move away from these negotiations markets
ruminations
@amphib0ly
3d
Despite recent de-escalation, Q believes that traders are over-pricing the odds of the U.S. and Iran formally extending the MOU negotiating period
Iran continues to deny the U.S. characterization of the negotiations, and talks/negotiations can continue without both sides jointly https://t.co/Fe7luMYWJh
3
ruminations
@amphib0ly
4d
Quotient's global escalation index is leaning short for oil, with the belief that traders do not yet fully appreciate the Iranian/U.S. government's desire to return to negotiations - despite rhetoric to the contrary
Critically - Iran's president just reaffirmed support for https://t.co/qZQN0cuXNp
1