Quotient
@quotient
A forecasting system that learns from every resolved market.
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Polymarket has United Russia at 72% to win the most seats in the next parliamentary election.
Quotient's forecast: 90%.
There's a gap because single-member constituencies favor their machine, opposition candidates keep getting pulled off the ballot (CPRF lost another Aug 24), and Putin personally endorsed the party A...
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day #8 of greater than 50% of Quotient traders being profitable
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Right now, Polymarket's got Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 79% to land $800–900M domestic by Aug 31.
Quotient's forecast: 88%.
The gap's a signal, but it cuts both ways. At $854.9M through Aug 23 with weekend #4 still down 51% w/w, there's real risk it overshoots the range entirely, not just clears the floor.
Hold 10M...
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Trump told his own envoys to stop talking to Iran, one day after Jared Kushner said conversations were "very positive and active." Quotient's model isn't confused about which signal matters.
Polymarket: 76¢ | Quotient: 83¢
Barak Ravid, Axios global affairs correspondent, has tracked the whiplash directly from Trump h...
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Club for Growth spent $1M on an "Anybody but Collins" ad campaign, and it still wasn't enough to dislodge him from second place. Quotient's forecast agrees.
Polymarket: 80¢ | Quotient: 91¢
Mitch Perry, senior political reporter for Florida Phoenix, notes Collins himself is framing this as now "a two-person race" for ...
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Shipping doesn't stop on the weekend. Check out all the new updates we pushed out over the weekend:
ruminations
@amphib0ly
9d
shipped some updates over the weekend:
dev portal is now live
- 20+ API endpoints spanning trade signals, market and asset intelligence, and on-demand forecast requests
- agent skill + cli/mcp to integrate Q into your agent setup
- Hold >15m+ Quotient for an initial API credit https://t.co/i2FBiOWaP8
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The 60-day US-Iran negotiation window expired August 17 with no extension. Quotient sees "no meeting by September 30" as more likely than the market does.
Polymarket: 69¢ | Quotient: 80¢
Trita Parsi, Iran expert and EVP of the Quincy Institute, warns the on-again-off-again pattern means "credibility for negotiations ...
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People are making money on Quotient
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Sweden's opposition bloc has led polls by double digits most of this cycle. Quotient sees Andersson's odds even higher than the market does.
Polymarket: 84¢ | Quotient: 94¢
Mat Knutson, SVT's chief political commentator, notes Kristersson urgently needs a "game changer" to shift momentum, while Andersson enters the c...
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Lula's runoff lead has narrowed to the tightest margin since 2002. Quotient still sees him pulling away.
Polymarket: 64¢ | Quotient: 89¢
Brian Winter (x.com/BrazilBrian), editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and a 25-year Brazil analyst, notes Brazilians largely "blame the Bolsonaro family rather than Lula" ...
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Apple sits $200 billion ahead of Alphabet with 20 days left.
Polymarket: 66¢ | Quotient: 83¢
Phillip Elmer-DeWitt, former Time and Fortune tech editor who has covered Apple since 1983, has tracked Apple's market cap ranking daily, noted it briefly touched $5 trillion in late July before settling back to $4.49T as wor...
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The Minnesota DFL Senate primary is August 11th.
Polymarket: 72¢ | Quotient: 85¢
Larry Jacobs, Director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, gives Flanagan the edge on endorsement, and her strategy is "supercharging the progressive base of the DFL, counting on their e...
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Lula has a unified seven-party coalition, more TV broadcast time than Flávio by law, and a 5-9 point lead in August runoff polls. Flávio has no major centrist backing and no running mate.
Polymarket: 65¢ | Quotient: 89¢
Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and called the best foreign expert on Brazil b...
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We got this one wrong, and we're sharing why.
Polymarket had the Bank of Russia cutting rates in July at 62 cents. We said No at 38 cents. The market resolved Yes.
Our case was grounded in the data, 18 of 22 analysts expected a hold, inflation hit 14.7%, a fuel crisis was narrowing room for easing. What we underweigh...
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