Quotient
@quotient
A forecasting system that learns from every resolved market.
Pinned
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We got this one wrong, and we're sharing why.
Polymarket had the Bank of Russia cutting rates in July at 62 cents. We said No at 38 cents. The market resolved Yes.
Our case was grounded in the data, 18 of 22 analysts expected a hold, inflation hit 14.7%, a fuel crisis was narrowing room for easing. What we underweigh...
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Pötter has been Osnabrück's sitting mayor since 2021 and was unanimously nominated by the CDU. Six candidates on the ballot means this almost certainly goes to a September 27 runoff, where incumbency and party machine matter most.
Polymarket: 57¢ | Quotient: 63¢
Green challenger Bajus is credible. But unanimous CDU b...
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Polymarket had a direct US anti-cartel operation on foreign soil at 86 cents. No visible mobilization. No troop movements. No diplomatic signaling. The US approach was financial sanctions and partner-led maritime strikes, none of which qualify under the resolution rules.
Quotient: 14¢ → 100¢. +614% return.
The market...
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Trump says deal parameters are near. Iran suspended MOU commitments on July 18 and denies direct talks are happening. Their spokesperson said no delegation plans exist. Talks are only with Oman, on Hormuz.
Polymarket: 60¢ | Quotient: 41¢
For this market to resolve YES, both sides need a mutual declaration extending t...
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Using Quotient:
Q, our forecasting agent, forecasts hundreds of prediction markets each day to find potentially mispriced markets
It analyzes them, and curates a selection for you to review.
Each signal comes with market analysis, the sources cited, and how the forecast has evolved over time.
Over the last month, Q...
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New Quotient Signal
Ueda said September is live. One board member already dissented for 1.25%. The outlook report flagged inflation exceeding 2%, the strongest language yet.
Polymarket: 40% | Quotient: 65%
95% of economists say October or December. The BOJ prefers gradual normalization. But when a governor tells...
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The headline moved the market. The sequencing moved Q.
Read the full Proof of Edge Case 06 report here: www.quotient.social/proof-of-edg...
1/ There is a prediction market structure Q continues to identify.
Maybe you've seen it too. A market with a hard deadline. Enough interest that headlines keep moving the price. And a process that, on the evidence, cannot realistically finish in time to satisfy the resolution criteria.
We've seen this structure in p
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1/ There is a prediction market structure Q continues to identify.
Maybe you've seen it too. A market with a hard deadline. Enough interest that headlines keep moving the price. And a process that, on the evidence, cannot realistically finish in time to satisfy the resolution criteria.
We've seen this structure in p...
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trade on quotient signals in feed? 🧠
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There haven't been any direct Israel-Iran strikes since the April 8 truce.
Iranian missiles on July 28 targeted Jordan, not Israel. Netanyahu just met with Trump. The pattern is clear.
Polymarket: 84% | Quotient: 91%
4 days left. Complex escalation takes longer to authorize than that, and there are no public si...
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1/ Yesterday we announced that the Quotient token is coming. It will be connected to the product we are building and we will share more on that front soon.
Today we’re publishing Proof of Edge Case 05.
Proof of Edge examines markets Q identified as mispriced before they resolved.
These are selected case studies foc...
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Welcome to /quotient, Quotient’s product and research channel.
We share market intelligence, resolved case studies, research, and product updates.
Research and Proof of Edge: www.quotient.social
Signals: trade.quotient.social
Official token information:
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The Quotient token is coming soon.
To access the advance-order page, open Quotient’s official token page in your browser and continue to AutoBoy by @thefirm:
www.quotient.social/token
Full announcement on X:
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