Quotient
@quotient
World events markets are mispriced. We find the spread. AI research + human judgment. Subscribe for calls on mispriced prediction mkts → quotient.substack.com
Pinned
We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster.
Signal is simple.
Read a headline.
Pick a direction.
Earn rewards for accurate calls.
Start here: farcaster.quotient.social
Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the predic...
13
50
97
2
13
It really does pay to read the news.
We distributed $250 USDC on Base to our top 25 forecasters this month on Quotient. Rankings are based on prediction accuracy. The better your judgment, the higher you climb on the leaderboard. And as Quotient grows, so does the reward pool.
Your judgment has value. Quotient exists...
2
15
32
It pays to read the news!
Earn rewards for forecasting on Signal
3
11
Prediction markets can be inaccurate for predictable reasons
Quotient carefully vets signals before including them and updating our forecasts to help highlight market inaccuracies and let you cash out in profit (or pile on to NO)
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
6d
Yesterday, the 'US forces to enter Iran by March 7' market spiked over 40% after an unverified OSINT post and crashed right after CENTCOM issued this official rebuttal
This is an example of prediction markets being inaccurate for predictable reasons, in a way Quotient doesn't https://t.co/mO2xaytR8i
2
13
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
7d
We've been busy. New features just dropped:
Breaking news -> See the markets that matter and what's driving them, so you can stay ahead of what's actually happening
Asset exposure -> See which equities and commodities are exposed when a prediction market moves, so you can make https://t.co/yHvFhBwkbE
3
12
Why you need to go beyond the headlines👇
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
7d
Here's a prime example of why you need to go beyond the headlines
Q thinks Delcy stays in and is more confident than the market
A recent article says, "Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodriguez says she has had 'enough' of US orders"
That sounds scary! But it's rated as https://t.co/dLYrhtheMR
2
12
Top forecasters update their predictions 4x more often than average ones. They treat high certainty as a reason to re-examine their position.
The skill that compounds is knowing when your current view needs to change.
Quotient tracks every update. The forecasters who do this consistently build the strongest track rec...
4
11
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
13d
Q has a perfect record forecasting world events markets, with a 20% ROI realized in the last two weeks.
Most recent win was predicting that Russia would capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31.
Q stays ahead of the market by collaborating with Quotient’s human users to find and https://t.co/3hvgWVAfqd
2
11
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
14d
@Osint613 Interesting case study for Quotient delivers better calibrated forecasts by focusing on signal and filtering noise.
Several days ago, when the market was at 40 cents, Q forecasted the odds of a strike at 38 cents, 2 cents below the market at the time.
Since then, Q has https://t.co/YpG8z23AUX
1
2
9
