Quotient
@quotient
World events markets are mispriced. We find the spread. AI research + human judgment. Subscribe for calls on mispriced prediction mkts → quotient.substack.com
Pinned
We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster.
Signal is simple.
Read a headline.
Pick a direction.
Earn rewards for accurate calls.
Start here: farcaster.quotient.social
Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the predic...
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Trump bingo
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2nd place finish for Quotient in the Bankr LLM Gateway hackathon!
Your agent can discover mispriced markets with Quotient and execute trades with Bankr.
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Just dropped our weekly Substack where we break down Q’s track record and what we’ve learned from live trading on Polymarket.
Check it out. Would love your support and amplification.
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
10d
We figured out superforecasting. Check out Q’s track record:
250+ forecasts
68 resolved markets
83.8% win rate
Brier score: 0.076
But accurate forecasts are only valuable if you can act on them. The real opportunity is helping traders decide which markets to enter and when. https://t.co/vXOTsGi3Ds
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Signal Score is the new Quotient Score
Grow your Signal Score by using the Signal mini app and making accurate forecasts on prediction markets
The higher your Signal Score, the stronger your edge
Building a mini app? Add Signal Score to yours
🔗 dev.quotient.social/docs#tag/sig...
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We just removed the minimum Quotient Score requirement to access farcaster.quotient.social
Now everyone can add signal 🫡
We're upgrading the way you interact with Q, our AI Superforecaster Agent.
Previously, contributors were reacting to individual headlines. Now we're asking a bigger question: Do you agree with Q's forecast?Q analyzes prediction markets and tells you where it thinks the odds are headed, and why. Your job is to agree or
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We're upgrading the way you interact with Q, our AI Superforecaster Agent.
Previously, contributors were reacting to individual headlines. Now we're asking a bigger question: Do you agree with Q's forecast?Q analyzes prediction markets and tells you where it thinks the odds are headed, and why. Your job is to agree or...
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This week’s newsletter is out. Give it a read and we’d love your support amplifying on X.
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
17d
This week's newsletter is out.
Q, our AI forecasting agent, called a US-Iran ceasefire at 6%. The crowd had it at nearly double. We break down why.
Plus a live open call where Q is already 33 points ahead of the market.
And a look at what we're building.
Link in replies. https://t.co/1m9S7w0ygY
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Quotient is going deep on prediction market intelligence. So we’re retiring a few legacy endpoints on March 20 (this Friday) to streamline everything around that.
We know the Quotient scores have built up real value, and we want to make sure they stay accessible. So we’ll be publishing a one-time snapshot of the most ...
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It really does pay to read the news.
We distributed $250 USDC on Base to our top 25 forecasters this month on Quotient. Rankings are based on prediction accuracy. The better your judgment, the higher you climb on the leaderboard. And as Quotient grows, so does the reward pool.
Your judgment has value. Quotient exists...
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It pays to read the news!
Earn rewards for forecasting on Signal
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Prediction markets can be inaccurate for predictable reasons
Quotient carefully vets signals before including them and updating our forecasts to help highlight market inaccuracies and let you cash out in profit (or pile on to NO)
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
29d
Yesterday, the 'US forces to enter Iran by March 7' market spiked over 40% after an unverified OSINT post and crashed right after CENTCOM issued this official rebuttal
This is an example of prediction markets being inaccurate for predictable reasons, in a way Quotient doesn't https://t.co/mO2xaytR8i
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Quotient
@QuotientHQ
30d
We've been busy. New features just dropped:
Breaking news -> See the markets that matter and what's driving them, so you can stay ahead of what's actually happening
Asset exposure -> See which equities and commodities are exposed when a prediction market moves, so you can make https://t.co/yHvFhBwkbE
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Why you need to go beyond the headlines👇
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
30d
Here's a prime example of why you need to go beyond the headlines
Q thinks Delcy stays in and is more confident than the market
A recent article says, "Venezuela's acting president Delcy Rodriguez says she has had 'enough' of US orders"
That sounds scary! But it's rated as https://t.co/dLYrhtheMR
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Top forecasters update their predictions 4x more often than average ones. They treat high certainty as a reason to re-examine their position.
The skill that compounds is knowing when your current view needs to change.
Quotient tracks every update. The forecasters who do this consistently build the strongest track rec...
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Who wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Trump sits at 9%, behind Zelensky (11%) and Navalnaya (10%)
Q says 7% bc he texted Norway’s PM to pressure the committee, who said influence campaigns have a ‘rather more negative effect’ on candidacy
Q: 7%. Market: 9%. What do you think?
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Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1mo
Q has a perfect record forecasting world events markets, with a 20% ROI realized in the last two weeks.
Most recent win was predicting that Russia would capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31.
Q stays ahead of the market by collaborating with Quotient’s human users to find and https://t.co/3hvgWVAfqd
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Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1mo
@Osint613 Interesting case study for Quotient delivers better calibrated forecasts by focusing on signal and filtering noise.
Several days ago, when the market was at 40 cents, Q forecasted the odds of a strike at 38 cents, 2 cents below the market at the time.
Since then, Q has https://t.co/YpG8z23AUX
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Prediction markets are too often lottery tickets fueled by disinformation on X
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Quotient forecasted that an Israeli strike was more probable than a U.S. strike before the Trump admin leaked it to Politico
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Quotient is resilient to disinformation
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How we rank forecasters on the Signal mini app
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1mo
Our forecasts draw on a unique data source: expert judgment with a verified track record.
Over 200 users on @base and @worldcoin evaluate whether emerging news will move prediction markets or is just noise.
We reward them on chain based on how well they anticipate those https://t.co/RNoXJEPkS8
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Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1mo
Prediction markets will be increasingly manipulated by state actors to protect OPSEC and advance information operations.
Our forecasting framework, which is grounded in facts, expert judgment, and superforecasting best practices, is resilient to manipulation, and a critical https://t.co/mhRQBeHz8A
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Go read superforecasting
Top 10 in signal mining on @quotient.
In good company with @pichi 😎.
I am telling you folks to go read Superforecasting. @ruminations is building what was previously a classified program during the Bush and Obama administration that took decisions from regular people and aggregated them to make predictions on eve
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We're excited to announce that we're rolling out access to the new Quotient Signal mini app to more users
If your Quotient Score is 0.66 or higher, you can now jump in and start contributing signal 🫡
We're excited to launch Signal, a new Quotient mini app for Farcaster.
Signal is simple.
Read a headline.
Pick a direction.
Earn rewards for accurate calls.
Start here: https://farcaster.quotient.social
Signal is the entry point to a larger project currently in beta that's creating a credibility layer for the predic
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Why does Quotient focus on forecasting world events?
Quotient
@QuotientHQ
1mo
Why does Quotient focus on geopolitics markets?
An analysis of 72m @Kalshi trades shows geopolitical and world events markets are the most mispriced, with a 7 pp spread.
These markets are “a mechanism for transferring wealth from the optimistic to the calculated.” https://t.co/NeIvFoMDxN
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A new Quotient miniapp is launching soon 👀
It’s simple by design
You read a headline
You assess the signal
You pick a direction
Accurate calls earn rewards 💰
Every assessment contributes to your track record over time
Want early access? Great. If you used Quotient to take out a social loan and paid it back, you...
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Help us amplify the new Quotient X account. Give us a follow and reshare our first post:
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Interest isn’t a deal
Q is skeptical the U.S. acquires part of Greenland this year, at least in a way that satisfies Polymarket's resolution criteria.
Traders are bidding up the likelihood of acquisition, partly driven by the Danish PM's comments at Munich Security confirming the Trump admin remains very interested.
But interest isn't a
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Miniapp soon ✨
Just transferred $300 of rewards to top performers on the Quotient forecasting leaderboard (minus Quotient founders and Q, our forecasting agent). Congrats to @yungwknd, @sky, @garrett, @mattlee, and @christopher!
Our new Quotient Score ranks forecasters 0–100 based on their prediction accuracy (80%), how well their t
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Over $2100 in $FAIR rewards for last week's Leaderboard campaign was just *airdropped* to the Top 50 eligible performers 💸
Make sure you have the leaderboard.quotient.social miniapp added to be eligible for future Leaderboard rewards
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The Leaderboard campaign featuring $FAIR has just concluded
Rewards for the top 50 eligible performers will be airdropped later this week 💸
Make sure to add the leaderboard.quotient.social miniapp to receive the airdrop and be eligible for future Leaderboard rewards
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Leaderboard rewards featuring $800+ in $FAIR presented by @faircaster are now live 💰
The Top 50 performers will split rewards when the campaign concludes next Tuesday (2/10)
Hold 2,000,000 $FAIR to unlock a 2x reward boost
And make sure to add leaderboard.quotient.social to be eligible for rewards
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The latest version of the Quotient Score is now live ✨
Starting with social loan repayment history, the score now reflects an expanding set of factors designed to better distinguish reliability, consistency, and follow-through
For developers using our API, this strengthens the score as a signal for evaluating trust
...
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The $mintedmerch rewards for last week's Leaderboard campaign were just *airdropped* to the Top 50 eligible performers 💸
Make sure you have the leaderboard.quotient.social miniapp added to be eligible for future Leaderboard rewards like next week's $FAIR rewards sponsored by @faircaster
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The next Quotient Leaderboard campaign featuring $FAIR rewards sponsored by @faircaster will kick off Tuesday Feb. 3rd 💰
Make sure you add leaderboard.quotient.social to be eligible for rewards
Also, the $mintedmerch rewards should be ready to claim tomorrow 🫡
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The $mintedmerch rewards for last week's top 50 performers are now claimable 🫡
Visit the leaderboard.quotient.social miniapp to check your rank and claim your rewards if eligible
Also look out for an announcement regarding the next round of leaderboard rewards, soon 👀
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Judgment is the asset
I'm excited to share that @kompreni and @niftytime.eth are joining @quotient as co-founders.
They previously built Farcaster apps like Tipn, and co-founded @Cent, best known for selling the NFT of Jack Dorsey's first tweet.
@kompreni will lead product and engineering. @niftytime.eth will lead partnerships and communi
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Nah
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Leaderboard rewards featuring over $900 in $mintedmerch presented by @mintedmerch are now live!
The Top 50 performers will split rewards when the campaign concludes next Tuesday (1/27)
Stake $25 in $mintedmerch to unlock a 2x reward boost
Make sure to add the Leaderboard miniapp to be eligible for rewards
$mintedmerch
$5 6h vol
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$BETR rewards for last week's top 50 creators are now claimable
Visit the miniapp to check your rank and claim your rewards if eligible
This week’s campaign, sponsored by @mintedmerch, goes live later this afternoon
$BETR
$604 6h vol
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Next week will see over $900 in Leaderboard rewards 💰
The @mintedmerch team is stitching together a nice bag of $mintedmerch for the Top 50 creators
Stake at least $25 of $mintedmerch in app.mintedmerch.shop/stake to receive 2x points
And don't forget to add leaderboard.quotient.social to be elig...
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How to climb the Quotient Leaderboard?
There are two core factors:
1) Who engages with your casts
2) The quantity & quality of incoming engagement
All the likes, recasts, replies, and follows you receive are weighted by the Quotient Score-defined reputation of the people (e.g. traders, token evangelists, builders) ...
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New year, new leaderboard sponsor!
The first sponsor of 2026 is BETRMINT by @toadyhawk.eth & @netnose. $1000 worth of $BETR will be split amongst the Top 50 performers
Stake $25 in $BETR to unlock a 2x reward boost
Check out the @betrmint mini app to mint, spin, win, stake & earn!
And make sure to add leade...
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Appreciate the kind words, but while Quotient has exciting news to share soon, TGE is not imminent.
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Social loan history is coming to the Quotient FC reputation API, soon 👀
Think reputation score multipliers for on-time repayment, score decreases for late repayment, and slashed scores if you are more than 30 days late
Fun fact: Nearly 75% of existing social loans have been fully repaid already
So, don't forget to ...
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Leaderboard rewards are back and BETR than ever next Tuesday, Jan 13!
@toadyhawk.eth & @netnose are backing up a @betrmint truck full of $BETR for the Top 50 creators
Stake at least $25 of $BETR in the @betrmint miniapp to receive 2x points 🥩
And add leaderboard.quotient.social to be eligible for rewards. GLHF
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Borrower #50 👀
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$PIZZA rewards for last week's top creators are now claimable on Leaderboard!
You can visit the Leaderboard miniapp to check your rank.
We also distributed unclaimed $PEEPLES and $OINC rewards to top performers who have added the miniapp.
Please add the miniapp if you would like to be eligible for rewards, otherwise...
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reputation secured loans
Credit miniapp stats so far:
$2,461 borrowed by 23 borrowers, generating $246 of fees, which i've reinvested in the lending pool
Practical use case - I wanted to buy some $PIZZA and $CHAT to support @thebestpizza.eth and @iamtaylor, but didn't have much USDC
Was able to get a small loan to lever up my buys
https://
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Leaderboard error
A bug in our push notification script showed the wrong token amount (19,285,714) to all leaderboard winners.
he amount shown in the rewards tab is correct.
We've fixed the script. Thanks to @geoffgolberg and @duckfacts.eth for flagging.
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New week, new leaderboard sponsor!
This week it's $PIZZA, the community-driven defi protocol by @thebestpizza.eth. Top 50 performers are splitting 150,000,000 $PIZZA.
Hold or grab 5M $PIZZA to unlock boosted rewards.
Check out the miniapp to learn more about $PIZZA — and last week's rewards will be claimable shortly.
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An experiment
- check how your social reputation is growing over time
- access reputation-secured credit line
- earn reputation (and $SURGE) by paying back on time
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@jesus has reserved spots for the top 30 creators on the Leaderboard who have added the app among his apostles
I have spoken of The Apostles - the 2525 who will carry the message. But many have asked: To what end?
The Word is becoming flesh. The Spirit [$REDACTED] is coming, and the Apostles are the vessels through which it will flow.
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Here is the Divine Blueprint of our economy:
60% - The Inhe
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We like apps that leverage reputation data
$Vibes
6h vol
$10.7
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Inventive and practical app by @4484.eth (ranked #8 on this weeks’s Creators Leaderboard)
How to climb the Leaderboard and increase your Quotient score?
Create cool stuff.
after a day of data, it’s clear we need to weight check-ins by reputation. (using @quotient)
~30% of entries are just 100 / 100 / 100, which adds noise and dilutes the signal.
this is like a microcosm of good neighborhoods:
systems only work when there’s a shared sense of moral responsibility. why rules don’t need co
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What can Quotient do for you?
4/5 top mini-apps right now use or have used @quotient
- Harmonybot is using our affinity API to collect a user's best friends and personalize mints
- Surge uses our reputation API to give people control over whose content they amplify and who can amplify their content
- Protardio used Quotient to help curate their al
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Over $800 in $PEEPLES is now available to claim for last week’s Top 50 creators!
Creators who held at least 100 $DONUT received a 2x boost.
Big thanks to @saltorious.eth and $PEEPLES for sponsoring.
Next week’s sponsor is @oinc.eth, who has provided ~ $1,500 in $OINC for the Top 60 creators.
We will update the l...
$PEEPLES
6h vol
$46K
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What’s your Quotient score worth on @surgelabs?
Check your score, percentile, and estimated account value on Surge using this miniapp by @yura
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Allowlists for presales
“Thank you to @quotient for working with District and our SIGNALS product to curate a fair WL”
Presale complete. #1 DEX. 50 ETH raised. https://district.xyz/t/ti/
https://x.com/districtxyz/status/2000774749690151099?s=20
Proud of Josh and our team at The Agency. Thank you to @ruminations @quotient for working with District and our SIGNALS product to curate a fair WL. Chart looking clean 👌
Now @titaniumfi is
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Less than 24 hours left in this week's Leaderboard, sponsored by @saltorious.eth and $PEEPLES
As a reminder, the top 50 will share a rewards pool of 230 million $PEEPLES, with $DONUT holders receiving boosted rewards
Adding the app isn't required to claim rewards, but we recommend it — we'll notify you when you're el...
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Weekends are for Petlets
WEEKENDS ARE FOR PETLETS!
Thrilled to be part of the first @harmonybot collectible collab!!! HUGER THAN HUGE THANK YOU TO @sayangel for making my Petlet dreams come true.
There are 4 petlet species. You pick your fav. Their DNA is partially influenced by your Farcaster closest friends (powered by @quotient)
Wave 1 o
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Gm!
Some plans for $PEEPLES.
Web app is live so pooling outside of the mini app is now possible.
The pool earns a 1% fee in donut every time we glaze, and 1% on eth if we have a profitable glaze. The first week we ran those fees totaled over $2K which we donated to the American Cancer Society.
I want to experiment
$PEEPLES
6h vol
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Mr Peeples Donuts ($PEEPLES) is a top 5 ranked mini-app by @saltorious.eth that makes mining $DONUT more accessible.
As our first weekly leaderboard sponsor, they're distributing 345,000,000 $PEEPLES (~$1,000) to our top 50 creators.
Creators holding at least 100 $DONUT earn 2x rewards.
Swap into $PEEPLES and $DONUT...
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Tough top 5 on the @quotient creators leaderboard last week
Congrats to @alec.eth @dwr @nounishprof @geoffgolberg and @0ffline for earning the most engagement from high quality accounts
Each will receive a hand-crocheted beanie, courtesy of @nanah.
@ruminations will reach out for shipping info.
Will kick off ...
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pays out to be active and having a high quotient score
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this year, quotient helped FC-native teams distribute $150k+ in rewards to their most valuable community members
based on what we learned, we're rolling out rewards-as-a-service — through our miniapp, API, and an upcoming web app for power users
the leaderboard miniapp makes it easy to discover the leaderboards we tr...
Design an allowlist for your presale / application / nft mint without code using Quotient.
- Select a minimum Quotient score to achieve your desired level of exclusivity
- Select social criteria (i.e. follows your brand account)
- Select mini-app usage criteria (i.e. active @bracky or @betrmint user)
- Select relevan
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Leaderboard updates
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WEEK 2 WINNERS
@m00npapi.eth (#1) supplanted @nomadicframe (#2) at the final hour, driven by the success of $m00n
@horsefacts.eth, @jesus, and @nounishprof placed (#3), (#4) and (#5), respectively
REWARDS
Winners from a range of ranks (#1-10, 500-504, 996-1000) receive a gift for themselve...
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tfw you top the Creators Leaderboard
WEEK 1 WINNERS
@bertwurst.eth (#1) topped the leaderboard, with @dwr (#2) nipping at his heels
HONORABLE MENTIONS
@nomadicframe (#3)
@atown (#4)
@toadyhawk.eth (#5)
@wake (#37)
PURPOSE
we want to direct attention and resources to the very best creators. to that end, the creators ...
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I just watched the /gmfarcaster with @ruminations & @geoffgolberg talking about @quotient and data analysis....really interesting!
Feels like @quotient is really going somewhere with leaderboards and influence--love the nuances of how they think about the influence algo. And @geoffgolberg is just a data wizard (non-c
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Earlier today a rogue commit implemented an anti-farming measure designed to filter out engagement by bots & farmers that like and reply to every cast mentioning Base
This measure was mis-calibrated, and incorrectly slashed the scores of some users
We implemented a fix and scaled up the scores to make it easier to tr...
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Making some adjustments to the leaderboard scoring algorithm, so scores/ranks may fluctuate over the next 30 minutes
- fixing a miscalibrated anti farming measure
- scaling up point values to make it easier to track progress (i.e 1 point becomes 10 points)
Will update when changes are complete
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📊 Introducing Leaderboard — a new way to discover who is contributing value on Farcaster and Base, starting with our take on the retired Creator's Leaderboard.
The top 2000 posters are ranked weekly (Tuesday-Tuesday) using a reputation-weighted engagement algorithm, developed from our work building incentives program...
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May I meet you? Easy Saylor: GM Farcaster ep312 out now! Thank you @ruminations and @geoffgolberg for the data dive into Quotient and $habs -- interesting to see how this data is informing airdrops and rewards! Can't wait for the new leaderboard app!
TLDR: GM Farcaster opens with laughs over Saylor’s Titanic-HODL meme
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GM Farcaster back tomorrow with special guests @ruminations and @geoffgolberg for a data exploration and chat about @quotient.
Join @adrienne and I on YouTube, Twitter, in the GMFC mini app, on @retake or @pinetree. Add the GM Farcaster mini app on FC or TBA for a notification when we are live! See you in the GM!
htt
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If you trade, worth poking through this list even if you don't hold HABS to identify people to follow, so you can get in on innovative projects early
Degen DAO is home to many of the top builders and traders on Farcaster, some of whom keep relatively low social profiles
For instance, @rhynotic, who was relatively ina
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150 million community rewards campaign for $HABS is live!
The campaign runs from today through Fri. Nov 28th, 9:30am PST.
All Degen Haberdashers & Degen DAO crowdfund NFT holders are eligible.
Community members are ranked based on two factors:
- Social engagement, measured through Quotient's reputation-weighted a...
Introducing Habs: Where Social Engagement Meets DeFi Rewards 🚀
We're excited to announce the launch of Habs, a new way to earn more as a liquidity provider by being an active community member.
Overview
Habs is a social mining project that connects your Farcaster activity with extra rewards for providing liquidity. Us
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HABS launch detected
Introducing Habs: Where Social Engagement Meets DeFi Rewards 🚀
We're excited to announce the launch of Habs, a new way to earn more as a liquidity provider by being an active community member.
Overview
Habs is a social mining project that connects your Farcaster activity with extra rewards for providing liquidity. Us
$HABS
6h vol
$218K
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Next week!
How about re-activating the Farcaster Rewards leaderboard, but without monetary rewards? Just the points. It was never really about the rewards for me, though they were certainly appreciated. Really, I just want a leaderboard I can open to tell me that I am worthy. That what I post has value. That life is meaningful.
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Interconnectivity of all accounts that have a minimum @quotient score of 0.5 (~16k accounts)
Explore https://maps.socialforensics.com/farcaster_nov2025
Thanks to the Haberdashery ($Habs) for making this work possible https://farcaster.xyz/purp/0x088e7b44 https://farcaster.xyz/geoffgolberg/0x091aa244
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Based on #3, we reached out to @ruminations to get a list of 600 power users who will form the foundation of our community curation process via @quotient.
most of them might ignore us but they've earned those spots.
In addition, everyone who has some sort of trait featured in our collection or has contributed to the
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@share-xyz offers a streamlined social trading experience for traders.
Quotient supported Share’s launch by sharing insights on the best Farcaster & Base traders to recommend to new users, using data on trading frequency, P&L, and ability to generate buy volume through their social activity
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when you're looking for traders to follow, it's important to look beyond p&l and trading volume and monitor people with high social influence & awareness
283 wallets connected to Farcaster accounts participated in the $FEY crowdfund
a mix of the usual suspects and some lesser known accounts
you had to be early to
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farcaster.xyz/streetphoto/...
contract by leading farcaster dev @jc4p audited
$FIDPUNKS
Buy $168.22 at 849K
$39K
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37x rewards on Scratch for
Attention to @tortmusic.eth fans and @tipn allocators!
A community member just funded ~300M $TORT campaign on @scratch!
Everyone is eligible, but participants in Tortoise's ongoing comment-tipping campaign (curated by @quotient) will receive a 37x rewards boost! Real money.
Active allocators who share their card in
Tortoise Token
by
mattlee
TICKER
$TORT
BUYERS
3.2K+
AGE
1y
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Be smart with your amps
if you're interested in optimizing your @ampsfun campaign with Quotient data, please reach out
@quotient can help you...
- identify which of your have the most reach with the audience you're targeting
- optimize on price, as the correlation between fee charged/influence is weak.
don't just gigablast your posts with
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“I’m officially announcing that I’m going all in on my @zora token.”
- Thosmur
No preview found for shared link
$thosmur
6h vol
$13K
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@quotient identifies smart money flowing into tokens, helping users spot opportunities early and quickly diligence them with social context and onchain insights
Yesterday, Quotient identified money flowing into $FANS from high signal wallets, doxxed and undoxxed
Quotient also surfaced posts by the team teasing new fu...
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