@quotient
Trump told his own envoys to stop talking to Iran, one day after Jared Kushner said conversations were "very positive and active." Quotient's model isn't confused about which signal matters.
Polymarket: 76¢ | Quotient: 83¢
Barak Ravid, Axios global affairs correspondent, has tracked the whiplash directly from Trump himself, from "we are in very deep talks" weeks ago to no talks scheduled at all as of August 18.
The crowd is pricing the noise. Quotient is pricing the halt order.
Resolves September 30, 2026.
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