quotient
A forecasting system that learns from every resolved market.
@quotient
Welcome to /quotient, Quotient’s product and research channel.
We share market intelligence, resolved case studies, research, and product updates.
Research and Proof of Edge: https://www.quotient.social
Signals: https://trade.quotient.social
Official token information: https://www.quotient.social/token
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@quotient
We got this one wrong, and we're sharing why.
Polymarket had the Bank of Russia cutting rates in July at 62 cents. We said No at 38 cents. The market resolved Yes.
Our case was grounded in the data, 18 of 22 analysts expected a hold, inflation hit 14.7%, a fuel crisis was narrowing room for easing. What we underweighted was Putin publicly calling cuts natural and a lawmaker pushing for a symbolic reduction. In a central bank where political signaling matters, we weighted the economics too heavily.
After this loss, we started searching more aggressively for commentary on X, particularly from domain experts, among other things.
Losses sharpen the model. This one did.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock all live signals as well as the full track record of Quotient signals at signal.quotient.social
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@quotient
Pötter has been Osnabrück's sitting mayor since 2021 and was unanimously nominated by the CDU. Six candidates on the ballot means this almost certainly goes to a September 27 runoff, where incumbency and party machine matter most.
Polymarket: 57¢ | Quotient: 63¢
Green challenger Bajus is credible. But unanimous CDU backing consolidating center-right support in a two-candidate runoff is worth more than the market is pricing.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock signals like this at signal.quotient.social
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@quotient
Polymarket had a direct US anti-cartel operation on foreign soil at 86 cents. No visible mobilization. No troop movements. No diplomatic signaling. The US approach was financial sanctions and partner-led maritime strikes, none of which qualify under the resolution rules.
Quotient: 14¢ → 100¢. +614% return.
The market priced the rhetoric. Quotient priced the operational evidence.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock signals like this at http://signal.quotient.social
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@niftytime.eth
If you’re wondering where @quotient is going, check out the Quotient thesis as penned by @ruminations
https://x.com/amphib0ly/status/2084461972070728113?s=46
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@quotient
Trump says deal parameters are near. Iran suspended MOU commitments on July 18 and denies direct talks are happening. Their spokesperson said no delegation plans exist. Talks are only with Oman, on Hormuz.
Polymarket: 60¢ | Quotient: 41¢
For this market to resolve YES, both sides need a mutual declaration extending the window. The crowd is pricing Trump's words. Quotient is pricing Iran's actions.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock signals like this at signal.quotient.social
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@niftytime.eth
There are like a billion prediction markets you can enter at any given time
@quotient curates markets with strong data-driven signal to make it easier to find mispriced markets
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock those signals at signal.quotient.social
https://x.com/QuotientHQ/status/2083284862220603585?s=20
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@quotient
Using Quotient:
Q, our forecasting agent, forecasts hundreds of prediction markets each day to find potentially mispriced markets
It analyzes them, and curates a selection for you to review.
Each signal comes with market analysis, the sources cited, and how the forecast has evolved over time.
Over the last month, Q's signals (held either 7 days or sold when Polymarket converged with Q's forecast) returned 12.5% on average (n=137).
Recent wins:
+ 455.3% on NO for "GPT=5.6 released by July 8, 2026"
+270.2% on YES for "Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16th"
+164.6% on NO for "U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31"
We're adding more markets and support for agentic trading soon.
https://signal.quotient.social
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@quotient
New Quotient Signal
Ueda said September is live. One board member already dissented for 1.25%. The outlook report flagged inflation exceeding 2%, the strongest language yet.
Polymarket: 40% | Quotient: 65%
95% of economists say October or December. The BOJ prefers gradual normalization. But when a governor tells you the next meeting is live, 40 cents isn't pricing that correctly.
Hold 10,000,000 $QUOTIENT to unlock more live signals on https://trade.quotient.social
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@quotient
$QUOTIENT is now live on Robinhood Chain.
CA: 0x2531F3ca1b31086b7FC130eCDa6D3253DAF83ba3
Quotient Signals uses Q, our AI forecaster, to find mispriced prediction markets and perps for short-term trading.
Hold 10M $QUOTIENT to unlock Quotient Signals.
Access lasts as long as you hold.
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