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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
̶w̶a̶l̶k̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶k̶ hike and mic
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Nick T
@nt
why not compare it to the british empire, the last hegemony, and the rate at which it deteriorated since ww2? i find the general argument reasonable but rome existed at a time when things happened orders of magnitude slower than they do today
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
What was the primary cause for the British Empire decline and how is that analogous to the US today?
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Nick T
@nt
US outproduced everyone else during and after WW2. This swiftly put the US ahead and on top. People who argue that the US will fall under China will draw an obvious similarity here.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
With that framing: 1. What would be an analogous catalyst to WW2? 2. How does China solve it's terminal demographic issue? It's real estate bubble / debt issue? 3. In the case of UK, there was another, better market for global investors to put their money in. What alternative exists today?
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Nick T
@nt
I’m not taking sides here - my stance is that it could go either way. But I think this debate is better than the one you started with.
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will
@w
I'll bite, although not sure what side I'm actually on 1/ the [inevitable?] china-taiwan invasion. US manufacturing already hollowed out; removing semiconductor supply chain crushes tech etc built on top 2/ they have a much higher baseline + robots. Could easily have multiple robots per person across china with quite advanced intelligence long before demographics become a major issue. For RE/debt, they print a bunch of money which is fine because it depreciates their currency and keeps exports competitive. Also keeps the party which controls the money printer firmly in power, as long as they don't do too much too fast 3/ this is the weakest of the bunch I think but some combination of EU and crypto assets. I don't see china being investable for foreigners for the foreseeable future..
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