politics

Hypothetical: if they held the US presidential election tomorrow, who do you think would win? (Note: not who you want to win, but if you had to bet.)

Prediction markets as an input 

85% chance Biden is nominee
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December)

Not disagreeing, but 1% of the population is Muslim (so even fewer are Arab descent), so unlikely to be the swing vote. Maybe in Michigan.

Biden may have lost quite a bit of the Arab-American voter support (rightfully so) in the last couple of months. Probably from other cohorts (including myself).

Prediction markets as an input 

85% chance Biden is nominee
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

47% chance Biden wins (dipped under 50% for first time in a while in early December)
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

I work at the posts office

terminally.online

This seems like the right EV bet based on today's pricing

Betting on a snap election tomorrow: buy Trump.
Betting on November today: buy Biden, undervalued right now.

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lowest approval rating of his presidency as of yesterday?

probably Biden 

the age thing is his biggest weakness right now, and forcing the issue before his cognitive decline becomes more apparent would be an advantage for him 

other candidates don't have enough mindshare yet and Trump's legal problems have bifurcated his voting base

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

𝖒𝖆𝖓𝖉𝖆𝖙𝖚𝖒 𝖆𝖉 𝖆𝖘𝖙𝖗𝖆

I absolutely agree, nor do I particularly think his reelection is net beneficial. I doubt dems keep congress. otoh, these elections have always seemed "low beta populism" to me, so I'd bet on the possibility that Biden wins popular (just incoming demo & narrative) but loses on electoral basis (more inside baseball).

I agree incumbent advantage likely discounted by the media rn, but re: poll numbers, this trend is not great for him. Poll is from yesterday.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_121823/

if I had to bet, Biden. there's the typical incumbent advantage, disapproval isn't skyrocketing, and many such factors. If the previous election had been held in January 2020, I'd probably say the same for Trump. 

so I do wonder what the hell will unfold in the following 11 months.

co-conspirator @ /moshicam /gallery /djs • prev coinbase • my casts are endorsements, financial advice, and reflect my employer's opinions

This happens?

https://www.businessinsider.com/ronald-reagan-fed-chair-volcker-trump-2018-10

sacks thinks the fed is orchestrating the "biden bailout" lol

gotta go for biden

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what would Trump do differently in Israel that the left or Muslims would see as an improvement?
 
+ Many muslims are “upset about Gaza” for other reasons. like Iranians who have seen their country decimated by the same forces that govern Hamas —>upset about how the conflict has conflated support for its regime.

talked to a muslim friend who's voting for trump. she's centrist, works in tech.

people underestimate how upset both 1. the left, and separately 2. muslims are about gaza.

recent quality poll had Trump +10 in michigan

Trump.

Biden has a very small base that he can truly depend on to turn out for him, since he betrayed nearly every faction of the left that came out for him in 2020. Plus the perception of him being senile.

Also the incumbent is usually at a disadvantage when people perceive the economy as in a downtrend.

I’m leaning towards Trump. But pro choice voters could swing it to Biden.

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If he survives the multifactorial attack vectors, then Trump.