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Alright, I put together a list of all the Farcaster-backed airdrops I could find so that we could objectively evaluate them to see how promotional drops from Farcaster helped a project's performance - in other word's whether the money spent on this type of marketing helped a project or not
Since we are lucky enough to operate in the free market, we simply judge a project's performance by the price growth of their token in these cases because at the end of the day that's all the vast, vast majority of people care about
If you have any issues with my workflow, what I disqualified, or how I looked at these things, feel free to simply re-run all these things with your own workflow, but no crying in the casino please (my replies) because I'm the one spending my time doing this lmao
Here was my workflow:
-> Only tokens considered since the big public push on Farcaster "airdrops" - so around March of this year; this disqualifies $higher since it was such a long time ago (degen days) and was a very different situation well before recent marketing efforts. Higher performed very well since it was airdropped (although down 96% since all time highs) so just keep that in mind.
-> Did not consider Monad Testnet coin or $sol because those are also unique things; one is a testnet coin, and the drop obviously has no impact on Sol price
-> I basically took the top of the candle from the DAY BEFORE an airdrop, and measured % drop or growth to the bottom of the candle today. I just needed something consistent and defendable and that's what we went with.
-> I included a screenshot so you can see when it dropped, and a graph with the growth measured
Finally, I hit the thread post count so I will include the final 3 as a reply to the last post in this thread
I think that about covers it, here we go
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Lastly, we had Shl0ms drop
I feel like that was a bit more unique in itself as well but we include it for fairness - 0% really between drop day a few days ago and today (feel free to go measure yourself)
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my conclusion prior to doing this research was that it's absolutely NOT worth spending 10k to do an airdrop via farcaster for "marketing" the way it has been done so far, and i feel like that is shown here, but we will simply let others make their own calls
im sure the response will be that app downloads are up xx% or whatever, but tbh no one cares about that if the token price is down
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Love this level of analysis.
Reckon a few folks turned their $Bracky into big gains gambling
Also interesting to look as price action for the newer tokens vs wct and celo
2025 $Degen
Also personally when a team says their dropping $10K or whatever if the price is instant down than I don’t really think it’s a 10K drop but that’s just me.
Big fan of drops that are effectively here’s a token you can use right now to try stuff.
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Would be interesting to see whether holder count (above dust threshold) increased, and whether app engagement went up or down.
Raw token price is influenced by broader market factors, but if even a small % of recipients convert to genuine usage or stacking, LTV of those users might still exceed the acquisition cost.
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yes definitely possibly that teams feel it is worth it even if it results in a loss of market cap
so could be where team sees it as a win, users feel it's a loss
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For new users, the “free money” may end up worth less if they chose to hold, which understandably feels bad. But for existing users/holders if a 10k distribution alone is enough to cause a serious drop in the token’s price, there were likely broader issues already in play.
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