The main thing I've learned from prediction markets is that no one understands how probabilities work

Technowatermelon. Elder Millenial. Building Farcaster. 

nf.td/varun

The intuitive reasoning that people have is that if p(X) is greater than p(Y) and Y happens, the model is bad. Most people know this isn't right 

The correct model is that if you're predicting an infrequent event like the election there is no deterministic way to figure out if the model is good or bad by looking at that prediction. You need to observe the model operating over a bunch of events to get any good understanding of it.

You needed prediction markets to teach you that? 😏

The problem with prediction markets is that they can be gamed as a cheap advertisement by someone who has a far bigger stake in the outcome of the bet.

And it always proves this in a different way!

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