TaylorWebb.eth on Farcaster

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https://warpcast.com/~/channel/success

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@taylorwebb.eth

gm ☕ I’ve been investing in the Web3 space for over 9 years now, and want to share what I’ve learned and how I invest. You guys already know I’m very bullish on Moxie - this thread isn’t about Moxie, its about investing in Web3 projects in general. None of this is financial advice, I’m simply sharing what I’ve learned and what has worked for me. 🧵👇

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@taylorwebb.eth

1/ Don’t trade I define trading as buying and selling on a short time horizon - hours, day, weeks - trying to time the market price changes. IMO price movements in the short term are just noise, and can’t be predicted any more accurately than a coin toss. Now add trading fees to the equation and it becomes obvious that the average trader loses money - its a negative-sum game. This why I have zero FOMO about all the memecoin mania happening on Solana. Sure, there are some people making lots of money, but most are probably losing. It’s a casino. On average the casino wins, not the gambler.

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2/ Past prices can’t predict future prices Ok this take might be a bit more controversial, but I am calling out technical analysis here as being almost entirely BS. For those that don’t know, technical analysis is using math or patterns of historical prices on the chart to try to predict future prices. Trendlines, fibonacci levels (lol), pattern drawing, indicators like MACD, RSI - IMO none of this works, and when I see stuff like this posted I always ignore it. Imagine trying to drive your car by only looking in the rear view mirror. That’s technical analysis.

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@taylorwebb.eth

3/ Have conviction in something because of fundamentals By fundamentals, I’m talking about things like: - Does it provide a new utility to users? - Does the project have revenue, how much? - What is the long term vision? - How big could that vision realistically become? - How strong is the protocol design / tokenomics - How strong is the founding team? Are they long term aligned? - How strong is the ecosystem around it? - How strong is the branding & marketing? - Does the project have space to grow into? - How big is the target market? These are just some examples of fundamental metrics I think about, but there are countless others that can be useful. All that matters is how strong these fundamentals are right now, and that is what will drive future prices. I started buying BTC in summer of 2015 because I did a lot of research and found myself very bullish on the fundamentals of BTC. Not many people focused on historical prices would have made this entry.

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4/ Buy & hold what you have conviction in Now you simply buy & hold what you have conviction in. Fundamentals drive what you have conviction in What you have conviction in drives what you hodl It’s pretty simple, you just diamond hand as long as you like the fundamentals Short term price drops don’t bother you because that doesn’t affect fundamentals Others verbally attacking your project doesn’t bother you because that’s not fundamentals

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5/ Contribute So you’ve got your conviction, your bags are filled, now what? Contribute! You are now a partial owner and financially aligned with the success of a project that you truly believe in. This is exciting! The logical thing to do now is: whatever you can to help the project succeed. By 2020 my conviction had shifted from BTC to Ethereum. I learned how to build smart contracts on the EVM, and in 2021 it became my full time career. It might not seem like you can make a big difference, but remember that’s all these decentralized projects are - lots of little contributors all over the world that are aligned on making the project succeed. Ok that ended up being way longer than I intended, but I hope its helpful fam and happy Friday 💜

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Midnight Marauder

@midnightmarauder.eth

Love this thread, one caveat. In short term trading TA has its place, I’ve used it with indicators for some great trades.Resistance and Support and Volume are good thing to follow. Is it because so many other traders are using the same strategies or are they actually effective? I dunno 🤷🏻‍♂️ I found Degen during the crazy days easy to trade, my thesis there is the huge amount of inexperienced people trading it. The pumps and dumps were exaggerated. That said I’ve paperhanded many times and kicked myself for doing it. Long term plays with good fundamentals is definitely a solid strategy and I appreciate you talking so many down from the ledge here. Fwiw I keep a smaller bag for day trades because after 7 years I actually believe I have an edge there.

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BrightFutureGuy 🎩↑

9y is a long time to be around the block 👏 🫶

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A little part of me thinks it's too late to hop on learning Solidity. I've had it on my list since 2017. Having read all your points and fundamentals, it shifts my priorities and motivates me to learn more. I need to realistically rearrange and find the time. Do you recommend any resources?

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You cannot imagine how i enjoyed this!! Thank you for your insights!! Wow!!

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Melika pfp

This was excellent, and you shared some really valuable insights! That long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals can really make a difference in the volatile Web3 space. Thanks for sharing your experiences; it’s incredibly helpful!

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Thank you. These will help for sure

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Bobber🎩💎Ⓜ️ pfp

Bobber🎩💎Ⓜ️

GM Taylor I read through it, and I love these kinds of posts and videos from which I can learn. Thanks, and have a great Friday!

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Dear Taylor, I've read all your statements. I must say that not everyone is willing to share these truths with others. Thank you for being so honest. Many people need to hear what you have said. 🫶

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