Stephen Serulle
@sserulle
Insurance + crypto nerd | Father of one | Fitness junkie
Always open to chat about insurance, crypto, fitness routines/events!
Spending time learning prediction markets from first principles.
Stripped of hype, they’re just a way to turn uncertainty about an objective event into a price by putting capital at risk.
I’m exploring how that “price ≈ probability” signal might support parametric insurance models (not replace actuarial logic).
Sti...
$INDE
Spending time learning prediction markets from first principles.
Stripped of hype, they’re just a way to turn uncertainty about an objective event into a price by putting capital at risk.
I’m exploring how that “price ≈ probability” signal might support parametric insurance models (not replace actuarial logic).
Sti...
1
Learning today about sequencing in insurance MVPs.
Risk definition → capital logic → oracle design → contracts/UI (last).
Not building yet — just trying to avoid the classic mistake of shipping features before credibility.
Feels like restraint matters more than speed here.
$INDE
6h vol
$47
Learning more about the regulatory realities of tokenized risk and on-chain insurance.
Trying to understand where parametric risk markets, tranching, and capital participation sit compared to traditional insurance.
Feels like structure + framing matter more than most people realize.
Spending time learning how insurance capital stacks would behave on-chain — junior first-loss, senior protection, and reinsurance backstops — and how people stress-test those layers under bad years.
Trying to understand what actually breaks first and why.
Curious what stress metrics others think matter most when thin...
Today’s focus: tokenizing risk tranches in parametric insurance.
Junior, senior, and reinsurance layers can each be represented by on-chain tokens with deterministic premium and loss waterfalls.
It mirrors surplus notes, cat bonds, and reinsurance treaties—but fully transparent and programmable.
Curious how others a...
Today’s focus: designing reinsurance for an on-chain parametric hail pool.
Stop-loss for per-event limits, aggregate XOL for seasonal protection, and quota-share for institutional participation.
Stacking these layers creates a true insurance capital structure—junior LPs, senior LPs, and reinsurers all aligned.
Curio...
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Today’s learning: designing climate-adjusted dynamic pricing for parametric hail.
Seasonal curves, climate drift, and active-regime multipliers all feed into a real-time premium engine.
Aligns incentives for users, LPs, and solvency in a way static pricing can’t.
Curious how others structure adaptive pricing on-chain.
Today’s focus: modeling correlation in parametric hail risk.
Using negative binomial distributions for clustering, regime-switching for active seasons, climate drift for frequency creep, and geospatial footprint simulation for multi-ZIP events.
This transforms a simple model into an actuarial one.
Curious how others...
1
Today's focus: designing a senior–junior capital structure for parametric insurance.
Junior LPs take first loss, senior LPs get protection + stable returns.
It mirrors surplus notes, reinsurance layers, and cat bonds—bringing traditional capital structuring into DeFi risk pools.
What do you think is the cleanest way...
1
Working on the conceptual framework for a 10-year solvency simulation for parametric hail coverage.
Modeling premiums, payouts, pool growth, LP yield, and reinsurance triggers across a decade.
This kind of simulation is essential if decentralized insurance is going to be actuarially credible.
Has anyone published s...
Today’s learning: the biggest blocker between insurance and DeFi isn’t tech — it’s language.
Underwriting = risk modeling + oracle logic.
Reinsurance = layered liquidity.
Claims leakage = bad triggers.
Adverse selection = frontrunning.
Bridging these mental models feels like the key to meaningful collaboration.
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