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I feel like every signal on the political side is saying strikes likely on Iran

However the most important indicator of the likelihood of this would be oil prices spiking, which we aren't seeing, nor are we seeing a run on stocks that would imply regime change likely imo 

Very mixed signals, slightly more bearish on American airstrikes in Iran today than I was yesterday though

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Its really hard to gauge cause trumps an unpredictable moron and netanyahu is litterally fighting for his life and if he stops fighting hes going to jail, so like that makes it real tough, but looking at just market signals, its all reading peaceful resolution eventually

I choose to adopt your thesis. I hope you’re right

Yes one of the likely signals 

But also oil futures are trading in the red and under 80

A us strike would absolutely trigger Iran to mine the port of hormuz ( 20% of worlds oil supply runs through there) theres no way oil futures would be in the red, or under 80-85 dollars if the market even believed it was possible the strait would be closed for any period of time.

Also no real runs on  like exxon or haliburton, companies that would profit massively from us backed regime change.

Market and human signals very far apart right now

Polymarket has 59% yes American military action against Iran up from 33 just a few days ago.

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To an extent, but if even a thought that a us strike would happen ( which would close strait of hormuz) was even a thought oil futures wouldn't be in red( which they were when I posted) or be below 80

Those would be slightly lagging indicators though

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Yes closing the straight is one of their best deterents( and they absolutely would if us struck) 

But 73 bucks a barrel is cheap, if the threat of the straight was imminent, i do think that's why its up, but also imo its still reasonably cheap if that threat was imminent ( most predictions have oil per barrel price at 100-150 depending on source) 

Plus we aren't seeing runs on like Exxon or haliburton, companies that would profit huge if us friendly regime change happened

I could see oil prices spiking not bc of an attack but in lieu of one. Irans threat to close the straight of Hormuz is what, imo, made it run up and stay the first time.

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I think it’s overpriced on Polymarket in general. I think Trump maybe TACO.. people are selling bonds too. Idk if he wants yields to go that high if we have to fund an operation.

That's where im at currently 

Oil prices are super reactionary to conflict in that region and im not seeing it 

Trump being an unpredictable moron and netanyahu facing prosecution if he stops fighting though are massive wildcards

Im like 60/40 we do it currently

Energy prices are making me doubtful this occurs.

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This is Aristotle’s deception strategy on full display.

Yeah, Trumps a wildcard in the scenario, its really hard to say what he does, I was 75/25 on strikes happening yesterday and now am like 60/40, if Iran closes the strait or even moves like its going to, or fucks around and actually hits something important in Israel my strike likelyhood goes way up again though

There is always a saying when it comes to US-Israel-Iran, manage the conflict, don’t blow it up. American hegemony depends on sectarianism in the region.

Now that I’d like to adopt. But this is also trump we’re talking about