$PURP

I feel like every signal on the political side is saying strikes likely on Iran

However the most important indicator of the likelihood of this would be oil prices spiking, which we aren't seeing, nor are we seeing a run on stocks that would imply regime change likely imo 

Very mixed signals, slightly more bearish on American airstrikes in Iran today than I was yesterday though

Polymarket has 59% yes American military action against Iran up from 33 just a few days ago.

Yes one of the likely signals 

But also oil futures are trading in the red and under 80

A us strike would absolutely trigger Iran to mine the port of hormuz ( 20% of worlds oil supply runs through there) theres no way oil futures would be in the red, or under 80-85 dollars if the market even believed it was possible the strait would be closed for any period of time.

Also no real runs on  like exxon or haliburton, companies that would profit massively from us backed regime change.

Market and human signals very far apart right now