Stuart on Farcaster

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Dan Romero pfp

̶w̶a̶l̶k̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶k̶ hike and mic

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Jon Commstark pfp

Critique: if we agree to draw a parallel then we should consider that America is the Byzantine Empire and the British is the Roman Empire That is, there was essentially a schism between having a king and self governing, but other than that all institutions fundamentally were the same. In 1,000 years will people be able to see such a drastic difference between 18th century America and England? Religion: same Moral beliefs: same Capital system: same Legal framework: same Language: same Governance system: change (tho England did have a House of Commons by 1775) Why bother pointing this out? When ppl say that we’re a late stage empire they usually are referring to Americas global dominance waning , they aren’t expecting a full collapse of America that leads us into a dark ages. Evidence of this: Americans will often also draw parallels to the Spanish or Dutch Empires which were less a Roman style collapse and more a quick global power and wealth changeover Conclusion: I think you’re focusing on the wrong outcome of the statement “America is like the late Roman Empire”, change the statement to “America is like the late Spanish Empire” and you’ll get a more exact understanding of what people are describing.

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Dan Romero pfp

> Conclusion: I think you’re focusing on the wrong outcome of the statement “America is like the late Roman Empire”, change the statement to “America is like the late Spanish Empire” and you’ll get a more exact understanding of what people are describing. Why did the Spanish Empire fall in your opinion?

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Jon Commstark pfp

War, internal strife (Spanish succession), and finances (overspending, inflation, tax loss from colony loss)

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Dan Romero pfp

How is that applicable to the US situation in 2025?

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Jon Commstark pfp

Two parts: 1) the US has 3/3. Finance (major debt issue), internal strife (not a civil war but state power is challenging federal power [texas border, NY sanctuary city]), and war (or at least we Americans perceive that we have an inability to be in a state of pure peace) 2) Why do I say switch Roman Empire for Spanish Empire? People don’t compare the US to the Roman Empire because they think we’ll fall like the Roman Empire. They compare us to the Roman Empire because of how the Roman Empire lost its global dominance. The Roman Empire is the most famous Empire, so it’s a placeholder name for most conversation. Really what people are saying is “all empires lose their global status because of 3 issues: finance, internal strife, war/land loss. America is in a similar situation” Or “we’re just like every other Empire and will soon lose its global dominant position”. What comes after the power change or if half of America still exists after the power change has less consensus. Perhaps we’ll be like the Roman Empire and the Blue states will fall while the Red states become the Byzantine of the US. Maybe we’ll be conquered like the Persians. But either way, the power change is coming.

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Dan Romero pfp

> the US has 3/3. This feels like a bunch of high-level claims. The details don't support it. We don't have an economy built on resource extraction (silver) from colonies (Spanish Empire). We aren't fighting any major wars. We have no military peers (Spain was fighting actual peers, minimal technological advantage). Most modern military spending has a domestic economic impact. We also have two massive oceans preventing actual foreign conflict from impacting our homeland. Our internal strife is mainly online. Compare to the late 60s / early 70s when there were actual political *bombings* every day for years.

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Jon Commstark pfp

Disagree -> The US economy is built on capital borrowing and cheap labor from soft power colonies. If the dollar adoption falls so will the US economy. The debt is so high that any other country, with this many enemies, would suffer a currency collapse or serious devaluation That type of inflation would fuel the internal strife we see in other empire power changes. -> We were in a major war three years ago. The afghasnitan war cost $500B a year. -> It also doesn’t need to be a home war - Spain lost considerable power in the eighty years war and the Franco-Spanish war which were fought (mostly) outside of Spain (fought in its colonies). -> The idea with war in this argument is: its expense leads to financial collapse OR losing leads to territory collapse which leads to financial collapse. You’re correct that America is different in that the odds of a war happening on our soil is extremely rare and that we are not fighting traditional wars. But that’s just a fact of the times it doesn’t make America immune to the actions and outcomes of those wars.

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Dan Romero pfp

America is the reserve currency. We can print money. You need a concrete alternative to the reserve currency to make the debt a major issue. Additionally, global capital parks itself in US equities, bonds and real estate. China manipulates their currency. They cannot be a reserve currency without a major change. Dubai, Singapore and Switzerland are too small to handle this. Without a proposed alternative, the debt argument is just a boogie man.

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Jon Commstark pfp

I agree with most of this But there are outcomes that could come true: Reserve currency could become an outdated term. There is no single reserve currency and countries start to have a large mix of all large currencies to hedge risk Other countries don’t drop the USD but they reduce reliance on it slowly but surely. They can (and do) make bilateral agreements with other countries to swap goods directly for one another bypassing the USD. The petroYuan every commodity. Specific to debt: countries can also use currencies like the Yuan if people feel China is more trustworthy and won’t cut them off. It doesn’t need to be a fully transparent currency for countries to make large trade deals. Better a semi-closed system than a bankrupt one. Countries already borrow money directly from China in Yuan (Argentina) A full collapse in the dollar value doesn’t have to happen, but a yoy drop of 5% for 10 straight years would be devastating And then perhaps there’s no relative collapse in the dollar value because (to your point) there’s no where else to put our money and everyone prints too much… so we get systemic global inflation (like the post covid years). Everything costs more everywhere and we all are poorer in relative terms. Each of these outcomes leads the same place. Economic strife which leads to internal strife. IMO we get a slow reduction in reliance on USD, China lends more in Yuan with bilateral agreements between resources and outputs, American power wanes, there’s a non zero chance of a few states on the left or right joining forces to either separate or completely ignore federal powers. I know you don’t really believe that American power can’t wane. So for fun I’ll ask you: If what you’re saying is true, why not remove the debt ceiling and print at twice the rate we are currently are printing at?

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Dan Romero pfp

I don’t believe in MMT. So the barely able to get a bill through each time (and the debt ceiling) is actually a decent governor on spending. You can deficit spend…within reason. I don’t believe the usage of Yuan beyond some symbolic PR stuff. The money ultimately ends up in an asset. With the exception of gold and bitcoin, most global wealth will find its way into US stocks bond and real estate. I don’t see another country offering a scaled opportunity any time soon. Every big country / economy has a serious set of issues.

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Stuart pfp

Pretty wild how easily you dismiss the vast majority of the worlds population as incapable of managing their own currency, rather than admitting the reason most of them struggle at the moment is obviously: Empire. The USD is backed in military force and threat of occupation, coup or even genocide if anyone opposes it. The world is getting tired of this, in my opinion. Maybe the US can hold on much longer through extreme violence and coercion but ultimately those manipulative and arrogant strategies will backfire and moral debts will come due. What's wrong with trying to come up with a system where humanity can cooperate instead of compete violently for everything?

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Dan Romero pfp

Give me a concrete alternative. Happy to give you a reason(s) why it won’t work.

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