predictionmkts

Why are there relatively few prediction markets on private companies’ future round raises/valuations?

a jiraffe on the internet • nf.td/morereese

Building @onit prediction market protocol | backed by @safe | https://jamesmccomish.com

you should try platforms like @onit we have similar things
onit.fun/m/0x6A8C66A01e277c6eaA38e96a7c823ea8dcEBcEE5

great callouts. even if there aren't markets around specific valuations, i'm still kind of surprised we don't see more like: "Will XYZ company publicly announce another raise in 2025?" on platforms like Manifold

- way too many variables that are not public so hard to gauge, very insider trading prone
- long term markets are less interesting. could take years to raise, and likely to fail before then so would be locking up money for nothing

Just saw that contro.tech announced they're public beta yesterday. Not sure how permissionless it is/will be though

Casting thoughts about decentralization and magic &
hanging out in /publicnouns /nouns /investment-daos 

Need to bring back permissionless prediction markets

probably securities considerations, feels kind of like options