Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

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This amount of money is peanuts compared to defense budgets, especially for these countries. OTOH, Iran could equally spend to influence perception.

Context: This would cost about the same as one Iron Dome missile.

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think the chances are now higher than ever. He’s lost almost all of his close allies recently, especially in the attack that happened just a few days ago here in Tehran, where I live. All the top-ranking commanders were assassinated — every single one of them

Do you think it’s likely? How would it go down?

As an Iranian citizen, I hope this happens as soon as possible

either:
1) iran/iranian people don't care. maybe they dont pay attention cause they don't trust the source etc
2) they do care. but the same mechanism works both ways. as soon as they see that it costs $10k to move the market they can just do the same in the other direction. 

one side clearly has more capital than the other, so are more likely to win in case 2. but this doesn't work for long. as soon as the market sees that markets related to a topic are being repeatedly moved to suspicious levels (especially when they resolve to the opposite value) they will start buying it... 

the funny result of this is that if iran start buying the opposite side, which wins cause it was always the most likely but that was hidden by the fake volume, then they win the funds that isreal pumped into the market

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