Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

Im curious to see where manipulation of prediction markets nets out given their increasing prominence as a source of truth. 

For elections—where the odds could have a non zero impact on votes similar to polls—you could see a significant % of campaign advertising spend find its way into just betting on their candidate winning: becoming a literal war of attrition. 

The above line of thinking only makes sense if the perception of current odds has a meaningful impact on voter decision making, but that doesn’t seem that far from reality.

i know a lot of people bet with anon accounts, so this might be difficult in practice... but i imagine you could profile the accounts making bets to get a filtered set of odds. 

even if the accounts are not tied to actual social profiles, you could give lower weighting to accounts that have only made 1 bet and it was on this market etc. 

but obviously most people only care about the big number that is presented, and are unlikely to dig too deeply