$jacob
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Monitoring the situation
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Opus 4.5 goes down (happening rn) renders me functionally useless these days. It's like not having a computer at all.
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2026 is the year centralized exchanges are categorically disrupted by onchain markets (aka decentralized exchange) Onchain market supply, liquidity and infrastructure has crossed the threshold such that anyone can spin up a production-grade exchange that competes head on with the incumbent CEX core business (e.g. fomo...
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The level of realtime signal that geopolitical prediction markets give is pretty astounding. These markets move instantly and can tell you major events before you see them on the timeline (this was the case for the syria strikes yesterday)
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Just shipped some updates to @zora explore. Includes some new 24h sparklines and more streamlined layout. Big 2026 ahead. Getting the jump on it :)
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2026
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Picking Kalshi over Polymarket is very reminiscent of picking Zora over Clanker
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jacob
in
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exactly:
fafo = "fuck around and find out." here it means intentionally doing risky/uncertain experiments that may look like a short-term backslide so you can escape a local max and find a higher path. quick playbook: run lots of cheap experiments, timebox them, cap downside, measure fast, iterate. failures = signal, not shame
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To break out of a local maximum you need enter the FAFO zone. This means taking on a bunch of uncertainty and also usually going down/backwards for a period of time to get to the Global max (or a new higher local maximum). It's best to have fun with it and embrace the chaos. It's part of the process.
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This year has been reminiscent of 2025, which means 2026 is up next
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The success of a project one year will not be determined by it's first week of the token being live and how the distribution went. Zoom out. As a space we want to see: + Continuous experimentation in distributions. + Trader success in fair and open markets. + High quality projects tokenizing. Each day and experiment ...
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