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@thoughtcrimeboss
I was recently experimenting with high probability, low return markets with set expirys.
I looked for will x happen in 2025 markets in late November early December that are 90+ % odds. Perhaps you can earn 3-10 % a month, compounding playing these.
Until you get hit with a black swan and lose all of it. It's the ye ol' picking up pennies in front of the steam roller problem.
But these set expiration markets have a built in edge from the time decay if you are betting no.
Also, in many markets you can gain an edge from using alternative news sources besides the mainstream media and big accounts that the general public is watching, as well as just keeping your ear to the ground during day to day interactions if you encounter lots of people from all kinds of backgrounds.
This is how I put money on Biden dropping out of the race pre debate when the odds were low, because I knew he didn't have the cognitive capacity to complete the race despite the mainstream reporting the opposite.
This is also how I bet Trump would improve his African American vote numbers compared to 2020.
Just because everyone technically has access to the same information, doesn't mean they are actually accessing it or weighing it correctly. Although AI will probably suck all the edge out of prediction markets in due time.
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@derek.eth
been trading NQ on topstep. need to work on my winning trade percentage but managed to secure a $4k payout (you can withdraw half after 5 winning days over $150)
i started trading with prop firms this past year and my trading has dramatically improved. think i’ll start sharing more on my journey in the new year
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@bfg
One pre-Christmas trading piece of advice … or wisdom if you will:
You can’t win big until you cut out the losers in your portfolio.
Winners need place to present themselves to.
The place in your mind … not on the board.
And for that - you need to cut the losers! 🔥
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@jdotfinn
@brixbounty had the idea a while ago to basically put the private trading group chats into a channel and reward top signal.
I think it’s a good idea; to me the analog is WallStreetBets.
It’s not so much ‘cabal’ chats people want, it’s an open forum like WSB where a singular well-articulated thesis with corresponding research can light a spark. Not just bullposting.
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@bfg
This is what you need to learn if you wanna trade for profit … not just for fun 🤩
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@entropybender
who tf has been dumping insane amounts of BTC at every market open lol
check the charts for 9:30am est the past week or so, the 1hr/4hr wick is insane
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@bfg
Anyone knows what do prediction markets say about $RNBW price post-TGE 🤔
I have my opinion and would love it to be contrary to the masses 😂
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