a prediction market built on top of Farcaster 
cast your predictions for 2024 below!

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predictions

What people call The Singularity will actually be a Global Workers Revolution

Going through the Iran tab at Polymarket right now:

Prediction markets not predicting correctly the most secret election process in the entire world is not the dunk people think it is.

Then again, betting on the next pope is a sin that leads to excommunication so it might also be God's way of punishing the gamblers.

politics

I bet that whatever Elon did to the X algo in swing states makes Cambridge Analytica look like childplay.

Found myself using the B world. What's the easiest way of betting on this outcome?

Founders

🎭 Theater of the Absurd, 2025 Edition

On the prediction market Manifold, a bizarre bet just hit:
“Will Trump declare interest in becoming the Pope?”

And guess what? On April 29, in an interview, Trump said:

“I would like to be the Pope. That would be my first choice.” — Donald Trump

✅ The market settled YES.
Welcome to 2025 — where anything is possible.

Tbh this feels less like "what a weird timeline we live in" and more like "hey look I found a prediction market whose outcome I can influence and get absurd gains at little to no cost".

Bill gates predicted the future of computers in 1993. 

Study history!

Bill gates predicted the future of computers in 1993. 

Study history! 

https://youtu.be/7QR9otLcnf0?si=F1StnnezkCmArmNE

I thought @ponder was a cool UX for having a normie-friendly prediction market. Sadly it seems to have chosen the path of being a popularity contest for Buzzfeed-type quizzes with gambling on top of it.

A daily game of social intuition. Predict, play, win | By @ba and @cojo.eth | ponder.social

Seems like a step towards X as the "everything app". Wouldn't be surprised if we get some wallet functionality in this, maybe a way to send stables

🚨BREAKING: X is removing DM’s!

It was just announced that X is completely removing the DM section

Good news tho: it’s being replaced by XChat, X’s new messaging service

Here’s what we know about X Chat:

• Meant to replace your texts
• Send files including PDFs
• Fully https://t.co/y0n9XRqUct

Seems like a step towards X as the "everything app". Wouldn't be surprised if we get some wallet functionality in this, maybe a way to send stables 

https://x.com/AlexFinnX/status/1912533338235236780

We should invite Robin Hanson to join Farcaster. I think he'd like it.

While at the micro level these markets are pure arbitrage sponsored by irrational players, at the macro seems a useful way if establishing truth from the ground up.

As in we cannot have certainty about many things of the future, but at least we can agree with 97% certainty that we won't see a Second Coming this year.

I dig prediction markets, futarchy and the whole shtick, but this is just sports betting on the blockchain.

Gg to those who are trading on frame.prognoze.xyz

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025?

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025?

https://frame.prognoze.xyz/markets/0xdc53ffdf1bba64d9df20be7eaf01ab8d4888b5fe

Will Coinbase begin active trading of any new Base-native tokens by mid February 2025?

Will Coinbase begin active trading of any new Base-native tokens by mid February 2025?

https://frame.prognoze.xyz/markets/0x27ea68670cb3f6a45ecddeb3f9e8b158800d8316