1/ I spent the last few weeks doing a deep on-chain forensics dive into @charmsai the platform where AI characters become living markets on Base. Here's what the data actually shows 🧵

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My June pulse on Farcaster

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The graphs below shows real data for daily casts. It's gone down by ~50%, and average casts per user went down from 20 to 5. There are a ton of reasons why there is less content, and it might be a great time to start building. What keeps you here in Farcaster? https://dune.com/empty_block/farcaster-usage-metrics

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is there an up-to-date data analysis on FC clients usage? specifically, curious to know: - %-wise usage per client - distribution of pro/power users - (bonus) unique feats of clients

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Despite the fact PlowNYC is a huge missed opportunity for a dating/hookup app, the live data powering this heat map is pretty rad https://plownyc.cityofnewyork.us/plownyc/ I still totally stand behind my take of this being a better name for a dating app

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Chernoff faces are data visualizations that map multivariate data into human recognizable shapes like faces (or fish)

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Lobster token trading volume rotation over the last week

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Quite a few people were interested in the PnL of Farcaster users on Polymarket. Here’s a quick breakdown: * Overall, Farcaster users show a 75% negative vs 25% positive PnL split, which is almost identical to the overall Polymarket user base. I also did an extra breakdown by Farcaster account types and PnL status (positive vs negative): * By FID number – not much difference * By follower count – also not much difference * By total number of casts – there seems to be a slight correlation: as the number of casts increases, the share of users with a positive PnL rises a bit, reaching over 80% for those with more than 20k casts Overall, it seems Farcaster users don’t have much more insider info than the general Polymarket user base. But it might be better to look at performance per specific market topics 👀

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Okay, I’m diving deeper into FC x Polymarket data. Here are some stats: What types of markets have active FC users (active within <6 here months, non-spam) been trading on Polymarket in the past 30 days? * The biggest market by volume New York City Mayoral Election: >350 unique traders with over $1.5M in volume last month. * The biggest market by number of traders Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?: >500 unique traders and $500K in volume. On the screenshots, there are also breakdowns per markets and categories. Some surprising things for me: – the bet sizes are pretty big on Polymarket – Crypto category has the highest volume, but Politics, Games, and Sports are very very close to it

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* 40k Farcaster users have directly connected Polymarket accounts * 17k of them have traded on Polymarket in the past month Who wants to see what they are up to?

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People say Farcaster is competing with Fomo to be the best social trading app, but Fomo only has around 1–2k unique traders, btw

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@neynar how much volume has Farcaster done since opening swaps? Month by month breakdown of available

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@neynar what is the average number of wallets users have connected? maybe you can give me a spectrum among respective quality levels too

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Over 5,800 Farcaster accounts reactivated yesterday (after being dormant for at least 30 days) Highest number of reactivations in over 6 months

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Over 71 million $PLUME staked now 🔥. That's over 5% growth in staked PLUME in the past 30 days! 🚀 Check 🧵 for dashboard link

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