Philosophy

If I predict rain tomorrow based on satellite and radar imagery showing a cold front forming, and it does rain, I’m right.

If I predict rain because I saw a black cat walk under a ladder, and it rains, am I right (but for the wrong reasons) or am I just wrong?

Can one ever be right for the wrong reasons?

Aviator, diver, Etherean, nexialist, PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

You have three "objects":
Predictions, Reality, and a function Outcome(p, for p in Predictions) that maps Predictions to Reality.

So, what's your question?
If Outcome() is a good function? If outcome(p1) for a specific prediction p1 was right?

Dad, geek, conversation liquidity provider. vrypan.net (home), @l--o--l (fun). devcoin:$lemon3

Is outcome() a good function? It depends on your metric for "good functions". For example:
- Good1: means that for every prediction p outcome(p) is what happens. (Usually we don't call this prediction, but a law of physics)
- Good2: outcome(p) is better than random(p), i.e. you get better results than a random guess.

Good3: outcome() gets a lot of attention when I discuss it with friends.
Good4: If I invest X amount based on this function, I will always make a profit.

"Right" is not well defined, that's where your "problem" is. And it can't be.

"I was right to bet my fortune on this coin toss, if I didn't we would live on the streets now". "Relying on Thomas to predict the result will be right only 50% of the time". "In principle, betting using coins provided by Thomas is wrong".

… that the 1st coin was rigged & had heads on both sides, & I knew that. So not only was I right in my prediction, I have the reasoning to prove why.

The second coin was fair, and I was just lucky in making a 50/50 guess. I predicted right, but my method was no better than chance. Is that the same “being right”?

My concern is where the prediction maps onto reality but for erroneous (i.e., probably wrong) reasons.

Let me attempt one more example:

I predict that two separate coins, when tossed, will fall on heads. I toss both coins, and sure enough, they fall on heads. I was right in both predictions.

It is then revealed…