Philosophy

If I predict rain tomorrow based on satellite and radar imagery showing a cold front forming, and it does rain, I’m right.

If I predict rain because I saw a black cat walk under a ladder, and it rains, am I right (but for the wrong reasons) or am I just wrong?

Can one ever be right for the wrong reasons?

Aviator, diver, Etherean, nexialist, PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

You have three "objects":
Predictions, Reality, and a function Outcome(p, for p in Predictions) that maps Predictions to Reality.

So, what's your question?
If Outcome() is a good function? If outcome(p1) for a specific prediction p1 was right?

Dad, geek, conversation liquidity provider. vrypan.net (home), @l--o--l (fun). devcoin:$lemon3

Is outcome() a good function? It depends on your metric for "good functions". For example:
- Good1: means that for every prediction p outcome(p) is what happens. (Usually we don't call this prediction, but a law of physics)
- Good2: outcome(p) is better than random(p), i.e. you get better results than a random guess.