politics

In just 3 days, Jeremy Corbyn’s new leftist political party has surpassed 500,000 members making it the largest political party membership in the UK

party membership doesn't win elections tho.

seems the new party splits the labor vote (15%-15%) and gives Reform (the right-wing populist party) 34%

(Labor currently has a massive majority in parliament with just 32%)

so yea, take note indeed

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Fearmongering on vote splitting is a great way to never get anywhere. Especially since, as centrist parties tend to vote more often with right wing parties on bills than with left parties.

And since, much of this split is expected to have come from the Labour Party directly who have lost 300,000 members since 2019. There shouldn’t be as big of a “split” as you imply.

So yeah, lesson in there, ignore this kind of nonsensical, go-nowhere thinking.

lost 300,000 members since 2019 yet won one of the greatest majorities in parliament in UK history..

not sure where it is you're trying to get, but if it's a place where pointing out historical facts is "fearmongering" that must be ignored or suppressed then it's nowhere I want to be

Seems more like you are trying to suggest the UK and the US should stick to principally two party systems; more specifically the same ones they have now.

Forgive me if I misunderstood.

if the split between the left party and the center-left is 15%-15% (while the right populist party gets 30%) that suggests they're both parties on the left will likely get overall fewer seats than if you had, say 25%-5% (in either direction).

I guess this very much depends on how the votes map to individual constituencies tho

Right, we’re taking the same inputs and coming to different conclusions. 

I agree that smaller parties have outsized influence which is why I’d rather see a strong leftist party that hopefully the centrist party will work with, than a strong centrist party who we know historically will just work with the right to pass increasingly rightward legislation.

We’re facing exactly this issue in Canada right now, everyone avoided “splitting the vote” and now the minority liberals just work with the conservatives to pass increasingly conservative legislation. Whereas previously the Liberals (mostly) relied on a coalition with the NDP to pass progressive legislation; they were pulled leftward. 

Even a centrist party that needs to work with a right wing minority is still better than two huge co-conspirators steamrollering everything else.

I'm not trying to suggest anything. I'm pointing out that party membership doesn't reflect election results

UK is not a two party system - smaller parties still have (outsized) influence in coalition govts

but that still implies that the parties need to collectively win a majority, which is unlikely if the vote is distributed as per the poll (which can obviously change a lot by election time)

in the US I doubt this even applies. third parties have no say at all (historically), and the way to push your agenda is to take over one of the parties - much like Trump did with Rs (MAGA is hardly a traditional conservative ideology)