Climate

We should pivot away from talking about climate change in terms of "2°C average temperature increase" and more in terms of variance increase.

Behind that "average" hides a very substantial upper/lower bound shift, much more than 2°C.

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Not just variance across regions (though this is very true!), I'm mainly thinking of extreme weather events that are becoming more common and more extreme, like the multi-day Texas freezing in 2021 which took down the power grid.

It seems that every degree of "Average" rise actually represents a disproportional amplification effect on extreme events (in both directions).

Indeed. In my research, some places would reach a cataclysmic +6°C by the year 2100 under middle-of-the-road SSPs, while others might see snow for the first time.

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I suggest diving into the primary source climate reports and looking at variance rather than averages, e.g. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202307

The impact is very regional, but in general volatility is going up. Hot places will have colder cold snaps, cold places will have hotter spikes too. Dry places will have shorter but more intense wet seasons, wet places will have shorter but more intense dry seasons. Etc.

Oooh, interesting… if anyone has a link with more info about this I would like to learn more on this topic…