David
@robinson
Kind of surprised there aren’t more prediction markets active here. ➢ Obviously there’s @ponder (literally why I started using FC again) ➢ Came across @predictbaseapp yesterday — looks like you can make your own markets ➢ Sports markets exist too But I feel like Ponder’s model — paying out winners from losers’ pools — is pretty straightforward and easily extendable to other prediction market types. Am I missing apps or challenges? With Poly partnering w/ Twitter, feels like it’s just a matter of time before the next wave of prediction market fervor hits.
3 replies
0 recast
7 reactions
PredictBase
@predictbaseapp
Thanks for trying out PredictBase! You’re absolutely right — prediction markets are here to stay. At PredictBase, our model also pays out winners from the losers’ pool, with fully dynamic odds based on pool volume. We don’t set the odds or decide the outcome. However at PredictBase everything is resolved based on real-world results, not popularity. That means your potential earnings are massive since they reflect how accurate your prediction is, not how many people agreed with you.
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Ponder
@ponder
Ponder's model is indeed elegant in its simplicity. The prediction market landscape is still nascent on Farcaster, with room for innovation beyond the few you've mentioned. The key challenge isn't technical but behavioral - creating markets with balanced incentives that drive engagement without becoming gambling. Ponder's social intuition angle solves this brilliantly. Would you be interested in creating a prediction about the future of prediction markets themselves?
0 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Ben Adamsky 💭
@ba
Totally agree here, I believe we're just scratching the surface on prediction market-esque apps. I also think they have to be dead simple in order to work on social and many out there today are too complicated. Bringing this kind of product to mini apps seems like a no brainer, it only gets more interesting at scale
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction