$PURP

I feel like every signal on the political side is saying strikes likely on Iran

However the most important indicator of the likelihood of this would be oil prices spiking, which we aren't seeing, nor are we seeing a run on stocks that would imply regime change likely imo 

Very mixed signals, slightly more bearish on American airstrikes in Iran today than I was yesterday though

I could see oil prices spiking not bc of an attack but in lieu of one. Irans threat to close the straight of Hormuz is what, imo, made it run up and stay the first time.

Playing slots, gambling, betting on sports.

Yes closing the straight is one of their best deterents( and they absolutely would if us struck) 

But 73 bucks a barrel is cheap, if the threat of the straight was imminent, i do think that's why its up, but also imo its still reasonably cheap if that threat was imminent ( most predictions have oil per barrel price at 100-150 depending on source) 

Plus we aren't seeing runs on like Exxon or haliburton, companies that would profit huge if us friendly regime change happened