$PURP

I feel like every signal on the political side is saying strikes likely on Iran

However the most important indicator of the likelihood of this would be oil prices spiking, which we aren't seeing, nor are we seeing a run on stocks that would imply regime change likely imo 

Very mixed signals, slightly more bearish on American airstrikes in Iran today than I was yesterday though

There is always a saying when it comes to US-Israel-Iran, manage the conflict, don’t blow it up. American hegemony depends on sectarianism in the region.

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Yeah, Trumps a wildcard in the scenario, its really hard to say what he does, I was 75/25 on strikes happening yesterday and now am like 60/40, if Iran closes the strait or even moves like its going to, or fucks around and actually hits something important in Israel my strike likelyhood goes way up again though

And I dont disagree with your first part

But also netanyahu is a ceasefire away from being tried and at best imprisoned for life for a myriad of crimes, its in his best interest to keep fighting and score as many Good boy points that he can leverage for mercy upon conviction

This is Aristotle’s deception strategy on full display.