math

Very very robust heuristic, you start to see it everywhere once you really think about it, e.g using fractional Kelly criterion instead of full Kelly criterion. As usual NNT is the GOAT.

My visit to NASA was illuminating: there is this engineering rule to use a 4x safety margin everywhere.

Now apply it to finance. How much $ do you need to retire? To be ~100% safe, estimate what you will spend &amp; multiply by 4.

So many retirees underestimated how much they

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Very very robust heuristic, you start to see it everywhere once you really think about it, e.g using fractional Kelly criterion instead of full Kelly criterion. As usual NNT is the GOAT.

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1940757894040822070

Lord Tao has entered the chat

https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2021/10/03/nines-of-safety-a-proposed-unit-of-measurement-of-risk/comment-page-1/

Fun way to think about 9s in finance.

I read a lot of NNT but he strikes me as a very smart dumb person. Most of his statements are so ridiculously anti-risky it doesn't make sense to put in practice. He's also anti-bitcoin but loves government bonds, so this is yet another example of smart dumb behavior.

No I find it repulsive. He claims bitcoin is bad, but selectively omits bonds and government Fiat has a horrible track record when you scale out for 1000 years.

I think he's smart enough to understand risk, but midcurving because you MUST take risk. Any classical Kelly bet would show you have to allocate, but his response is usually along the lines of "I'm smarter than you."

Avoid people who play a game where they're so smart and everyone else around them is stupid. If they can't update their information they are dumber than even they know.

That's actually why I like him so much, his logic is often airtight where it matters the most (for his survival) and often really weak everywhere else, it's very very consistent with everything else about him.

Fun way to think about 9s in finance.

I read a lot of NNT but he strikes me as a very smart dumb person. Most of his statements are so ridiculously anti-risky it doesn't make sense to put in practice. He's also anti-bitcoin but loves government bonds, so this is yet another example of smart dumb behavior.

https://forum.berachain.com/t/partnering-with-tether-to-get-xaut-in-berachain/172/3