math

Very very robust heuristic, you start to see it everywhere once you really think about it, e.g using fractional Kelly criterion instead of full Kelly criterion. As usual NNT is the GOAT.

My visit to NASA was illuminating: there is this engineering rule to use a 4x safety margin everywhere.

Now apply it to finance. How much $ do you need to retire? To be ~100% safe, estimate what you will spend &amp; multiply by 4.

So many retirees underestimated how much they

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Very very robust heuristic, you start to see it everywhere once you really think about it, e.g using fractional Kelly criterion instead of full Kelly criterion. As usual NNT is the GOAT.

https://x.com/nntaleb/status/1940757894040822070

Fun way to think about 9s in finance.

I read a lot of NNT but he strikes me as a very smart dumb person. Most of his statements are so ridiculously anti-risky it doesn't make sense to put in practice. He's also anti-bitcoin but loves government bonds, so this is yet another example of smart dumb behavior.

https://forum.berachain.com/t/partnering-with-tether-to-get-xaut-in-berachain/172/3

Lord Tao has entered the chat

https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2021/10/03/nines-of-safety-a-proposed-unit-of-measurement-of-risk/comment-page-1/