I suspect that there are a lot of ideas  that today that are open secrets, but not yet common knowledge. 

So a lot of people know a certain thing and believe it to be true, but they don’t yet have confidence that a critical mass of other people also know that thing to be true.

When that switch slips over to common knowledge, everybody will suddenly start to act on that knowledge. The trick that prevents taking action is probably more about timelines and “markets staying irrational” type dynamics than anything else.

Pragmatism (Security) at OP Labs.
Prev: ConsenSys & Coinbase.

Attribs: Friendly, curious, introverted, mid-witted.
Chans: /eth-security /maurelian /stoicism




Is this the "slowly then all at once" effect?

A doodler and computerer. I like permissive/permissionless open source, smart contracts, p2p systems, room-scale VR, and NixOS.

shazow.net

Currently: WhatsABI

Probably more of an argument around what should be priced in. Buy the rumour, sell the news? Efficient markets? Etc.

Open market prices are just open prediction markets: They predict the current sentiment rather than the outcome. The sentiment usually happens to converge to the outcome in the long run.