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1911-18 is def my favorite because It's a great example of game theory in practice.
- When Franz Ferdinand got assassinated, the Emperor of Austria was forced to react. Not only because he lost a nephew, but also because he couldn't show weakness by ignoring the assassination of the heir of the throne on Austro-Hungarian turf. So he started preparing to enter Serbia.
- This forced Tzar of Russia to react, as Russians were Serbia's protector, and leaving them without any support would also show weakness.
- Then French - Russian allies - and Germans - Austrian allies - started preparing their armies.
- Because Germans were located between French and Russians, they would end up in a two-front war where they wouldn't stand a chance.
So their move was also forced and Germans followed the Schlieffen Plan where they were supposed to attack France fast, conquer it and focus on Russians,
- We ofc know that Germans didn't conquer France, which got supported by England once Germans violated Belgian neutrality, but...
- To weaken the Russians, Germans sent Lenin, and other communists back to their country. They also gave them money to support the communist revolution, and laid the foundations for the ideology that fueled the deadliest countries of the XX century - communist Russia, communist China and Hitler's Germany (Hitler got into power partially because he sold his ideology as a 'lesser evil' compared to communism).
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When most people ask themselves 'How the Next Big War might start?' they think of a crazy guy like Hitler who gets into power, spends years building an authoritarian regime, and then sends a giant army to conquer the world.
What WWI shows us is that the war can start by taking one critical piece out of the political Jenga tower that destroys the game theoretic equilibrium, and - like in a giant multiplayer chess match - forces moves on other players.
And since the power back then was way more centralized (these were primarily monarchies or semi-authoritarian regimes, not democracies), it was much easier for those in power to make radical moves. 0 reply
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