Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

Im curious to see where manipulation of prediction markets nets out given their increasing prominence as a source of truth. 

For elections—where the odds could have a non zero impact on votes similar to polls—you could see a significant % of campaign advertising spend find its way into just betting on their candidate winning: becoming a literal war of attrition. 

The above line of thinking only makes sense if the perception of current odds has a meaningful impact on voter decision making, but that doesn’t seem that far from reality.

I think it a function of open interest/volume 

if it’s highly liquid/actually traded then it might be able to be gamed by a few points (1-3%)

otherwise it’s like insurance, there are people who deal in life insurance that can probably tell you your natural date of death +/- a few months based on your medical history 

the French poly market whale comes to mind here, everyone thought he was some mega trumper and it turned out he was using a more sophisticated polling method than anyone else