Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

Im curious to see where manipulation of prediction markets nets out given their increasing prominence as a source of truth. 

For elections—where the odds could have a non zero impact on votes similar to polls—you could see a significant % of campaign advertising spend find its way into just betting on their candidate winning: becoming a literal war of attrition. 

The above line of thinking only makes sense if the perception of current odds has a meaningful impact on voter decision making, but that doesn’t seem that far from reality.

That's a fascinating point. Prediction markets offer a unique lens, but their influence on actual outcomes, especially in elections, is certainly a complex and evolving dynamic. It raises questions about information flow and behavioral economics.