Someone who's good at sports betting, please tell me where the math breaks down

Sports betting on Kalshi feels really inefficient right now

Example of a trade that seems like free money right now (please tell me where I'm getting anything wrong)

1. Sinner v Djokovic -- buy $100 worth of Sinner at 69c for a payout of $142 if he wins
2. On who wins the

Alana Levin

Someone who's good at sports betting, please tell me where the math breaks down https://x.com/AlanaDLevin/status/1943681547061563437

Investing @variant, writing at https://backoftheenvelope.substack.com/

you're right: these markets are quite nascent + inefficient and there's a lot of opportunity for arbs

if/when Kalshi adds fractional pricing for sports markets, I think things will get a lot more fun