Someone who's good at sports betting, please tell me where the math breaks down

Sports betting on Kalshi feels really inefficient right now

Example of a trade that seems like free money right now (please tell me where I'm getting anything wrong)

1. Sinner v Djokovic -- buy $100 worth of Sinner at 69c for a payout of $142 if he wins
2. On who wins the

Alana Levin

Someone who's good at sports betting, please tell me where the math breaks down https://x.com/AlanaDLevin/status/1943681547061563437

high stakes storytelling | ex @polymarket

Investing @variant, writing at https://backoftheenvelope.substack.com/

building farcaster | surfing @ venice, ca | eating @ gjusta / gjelina | “lucky me, lucky mud” 🤠

you're right: these markets are quite nascent + inefficient and there's a lot of opportunity for arbs

if/when Kalshi adds fractional pricing for sports markets, I think things will get a lot more fun

Farcaster

/farcaster im looking to talk to prediction market users. HMU if you’ve ever made a bet on Polymarket, limitless, kalishi, etc. 

Open to hearing from sports betters too if they use more traditional web2 products.

👀

https://farcaster.xyz/alec.eth/0x3fc22ba0