Fundamentals:
- Est P/E ratio = 46.6 (cb is ~46 but they are more than just a stablecoin)
- If/When trsy yield drops, they start losing money really fast
- Other stats (see pic below)

Degen/Hype/Growth:
- $7.2B market cap is basically free compared to Ethena or Maker.
- BlackRock and Ark need exposure to stablecoins
- Congress/gov is passing laws (GENIUS Act)
- Literally the ONLY stablecoin/crypto exposure institutions can access (aside from Coinbase — who gets paid by Circle anyway).

NFA

Very interested to see how this Circle IPO goes this week

Circle is eyeing a $7.2B valuation as investor demand seems to be heating up 

The fundamentals don't seem to back up this valuation but the market demand for stablecoin exposure is so strong that this valuation seems untethered from the underlying business

Stay Curious // iixii // Head of Crypto at https://www.lazertechnologies.com/  // Prev: CoinDesk, Roc Nation // based @basedevo

it'll be very telling for where abouts we are vs the world

Circle's revenue is 100% tied to interest rates and there's no other meaningful revenue sources

Circle looks much more like a bank or commodity business than a software or tech business.  Circle getting the same P/E ratio as Coinbase seems insane but I think the meme of stablecoin exposure is so strong that the valuation will continue to get pushed up but i'm very wary of it sustaining that valuation over time without a significant new line of revenue 

Regardless, this IPO will be a big win for crypto in the US and i'm excited for everyone who is holding Circle equity who will benefit from this upsized IPO

I think it was silly that they left retail bc now they’re overly reliant on Coinbase for distribution and they pay Coinbase handsomely for it

They need more products/services that are actually good in order to grow their business

Fun fact. I used to buy a lot of crypto from Circle back when they were B2C. I'm pretty sure they allowed debit card purchases before Coinbase. 

I thought it was silly when they left retail but man was I wrong. I had no idea they'd become the standard in stablecoins.