I keep posting this stuff because I’m extremely skeptical of claims made in the early stages of wars. It’s always propaganda, and then the fog starts lifting as the war drags on and then the truth emerges, often so in ways that closely resemble the claims and warnings made before such wars even began. Iran had a lot of missiles, they likely still have a lot of missiles, and claims of their destruction over the last week appear overstated

We’re now at the stage of the news hype cycle where the damage sustained by Israel is being overstated. Heard one prominent military analyst say that Iran has inflicted half a trillion dollars of damage on Israel, a country that has a GDP of … half a trillion dollars 🤷

The damage is definitely exaggerated but what’s not exaggerated is the Israeli air deterrence which is at capacity and ultimately failing. 

This plan of regime change and decapitation strikes failed, and Trump’s pissed at Bibi for not finishing the job. Now they’re looking for an off ramp or a false flag to bombs away.

Here’s the kicker, Fodor can withstand bunker busters which means a tactical nuke is the only option.

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I think there are plenty of smart people who think the Israeli ballistic missile defense is going better than planned and the air superiority way better than expected.

If the US doesn’t drop several MOPs, they’ll do a commando raid on Fordow like they did in Syria.

I can predictt the headlines the following day:

American Special Forces captured by the IRGC … 

None of this is a good idea.

Israelis aren’t putting boots on the ground in Iran.

> None of this is a good idea

Iranians chose to pursue a bomb. FAFO