Hugh Naylor
@hughnaylor
We’re now at the stage of the news hype cycle where the damage sustained by Israel is being overstated. Heard one prominent military analyst say that Iran has inflicted half a trillion dollars of damage on Israel, a country that has a GDP of … half a trillion dollars 🤷
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FrameTheGlobe
@frametheglobe
The damage is definitely exaggerated but what’s not exaggerated is the Israeli air deterrence which is at capacity and ultimately failing. This plan of regime change and decapitation strikes failed, and Trump’s pissed at Bibi for not finishing the job. Now they’re looking for an off ramp or a false flag to bombs away. Here’s the kicker, Fodor can withstand bunker busters which means a tactical nuke is the only option.
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
I think there are plenty of smart people who think the Israeli ballistic missile defense is going better than planned and the air superiority way better than expected. If the US doesn’t drop several MOPs, they’ll do a commando raid on Fordow like they did in Syria.
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Hugh Naylor
@hughnaylor
I dunno. This is the hardest that Israel has ever been hit. It’s as severe as ‘73, probably more so when you consider ongoing societal disruption. Refining infrastructure has been smashed. Defense facilities have been hit in ways that they never have been hit before. I’m not saying it’s a knock-out blow. Not at all. But this is different. If this keeps up for another month, given low strategic depth for Israel, then it’s basically utterly devastating. They will need an American bailout — you could argue it’s all been an American bailout of late. But I agree there are those who are very much overstating the impact, at least at the moment.
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FrameTheGlobe
@frametheglobe
I can predictt the headlines the following day: American Special Forces captured by the IRGC … None of this is a good idea.
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