Hugh Naylor

@hughnaylor

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Per yesterday’s announcement

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Hoping this ceasefire holds 🤞but don’t wanna get my hopes too high

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Now a spicy prediction: Hezbollah is regrouping and could re-enter the conflict if the fighting with Iran intensifies — primarily because the Lebanese state has been unable to counter in the eyes of the public ongoing Israeli military moves in southern Lebanon, thereby giving more political room for the group to fight again. Though it is obvs a degraded force

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New theory: Iran’s air defenses are still intact, somewhat, and most strikes by Israel have been missiles launched from Iraqi airspace or drones smuggled into Iran and then launched. Helps explain why there’s a gaping lack of intelligence of what happened to the nuclear sites in Iran allegedly destroyed by the US

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No cat pics. Sigh

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If there’s no war escalation, I’m going to celebrate by posting nothing but pictures of my 21-year-old cat on here. It will truly be insufferable

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Only quote-posting this to say that those who call for ending the conflict by creating a two-state solution are either naive or disingenuous. It’s impossible now. It’s either ethnic cleansing or living together somehow

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I remember 13 years ago, living in Jerusalem and Ramallah, how the liberal-left of America was on a proverbial collision course with Israel and its supporters in America. Little came of it. Now — and I never predicted this — it is MAGA/the America First crowd that is leading the charge of what will inevitably lead to a break between the US and Israel. Not a value judgement here from me, just an observation. But Bannon calling for AIPAC to be registered as a foreign lobby is *the* crossing of the American-Israeli Rubicon. No coming back from this

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We’re now at the stage of the news hype cycle where the damage sustained by Israel is being overstated. Heard one prominent military analyst say that Iran has inflicted half a trillion dollars of damage on Israel, a country that has a GDP of … half a trillion dollars 🤷

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Visiting the southwest and its 100 degrees and this is my only option

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Something that Americans are having to grapple with is the cross-directionality of radicalism in Israel and Iran. In Iran, you have a population that is tired of Islamic Revolution and placing extreme pressure on their regime to moderate. Hence the regime’s willingness to negotiate (even if haltingly) over its nascent nuke program in order to get sanctions relief. In Israel, you have a population that increasingly is national religious and revisionist (Kahanists and Likudniks) that are pushing a military-dominated government traditionally run by Euro-aligned Labour Zionists into ever-more extreme positions. Netanyahu is not an aberration — he’s a bulwark against more extremist leaders. Rabin, the Labour leader of the now-dead peace process, was assasinated not by a Palestinian but by a revisonist American Jewish person (with, ostensibly, backing by the Netanyahu camp). This dichotomy will play out in unexpected ways that will make American relations with both countries even wilder

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This part really made me laugh. It was a good interview overall

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I keep posting this stuff because I’m extremely skeptical of claims made in the early stages of wars. It’s always propaganda, and then the fog starts lifting as the war drags on and then the truth emerges, often so in ways that closely resemble the claims and warnings made before such wars even began. Iran had a lot of missiles, they likely still have a lot of missiles, and claims of their destruction over the last week appear overstated

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Translation: Israel is running out of longer-range interceptors and is forced to use short-range ones to counter the big rockets https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1935696512857600493?s=46

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Last point! But amid reports of intensifying Israeli military censorship of video/imagery of damage from Iranian missile barrages, the videos that are now managing to come out show that Israeli missile defenses are not working. These defenses might be starting to outright fail, actually. The strikes appear to be ongoing and seemingly unstoppable. This was reportedly captured by the crew of an Indian naval or shipping vessel

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The counter to this is that Iran could have — emphasis on could — built up such a massive ballistic missile arsenal and impenetrable latent nuclear weapons program that this in itself is almost as effective as a nuclear deterrent against Israel. The evidence of this is the unprecedented damage that their missiles have had on Israeli society and infrastructure, all of which has been reinforced by Israeli military efforts to censor the reporting on the seemingly large-scale damage of these missile barrages. Still, a functioning Iranian nuclear weapons program might have deterred this fighting from ever happening in the first place — or it could have actually led to nuclear war 🤷

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One perplexing aspect of this nuclear dilemma is how serious the religious edict in Iran against nuclear weapons was and is. It does seem genuine, on one hand, and yet on another Iran has been a rather shrewd player in arming sometimes extremist allies across the region against its enemies. I’ve heard some say that Iran hovering for years at the nuclear weapons threshold was more about winning concessions from the west. Nevertheless, from Iran’s perspective, that deliberate delay strategy might have been fatally costly given that its government’s very existence is now threatened by Israel because of a lack of a nuclear deterrent

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