Dan Romero on Farcaster

Hugh Naylor pfp

We’re now at the stage of the news hype cycle where the damage sustained by Israel is being overstated. Heard one prominent military analyst say that Iran has inflicted half a trillion dollars of damage on Israel, a country that has a GDP of … half a trillion dollars 🤷

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FrameTheGlobe pfp

The damage is definitely exaggerated but what’s not exaggerated is the Israeli air deterrence which is at capacity and ultimately failing. This plan of regime change and decapitation strikes failed, and Trump’s pissed at Bibi for not finishing the job. Now they’re looking for an off ramp or a false flag to bombs away. Here’s the kicker, Fodor can withstand bunker busters which means a tactical nuke is the only option.

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Dan Romero pfp

I think there are plenty of smart people who think the Israeli ballistic missile defense is going better than planned and the air superiority way better than expected. If the US doesn’t drop several MOPs, they’ll do a commando raid on Fordow like they did in Syria.

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Hugh Naylor pfp

I dunno. This is the hardest that Israel has ever been hit. It’s as severe as ‘73, probably more so when you consider ongoing societal disruption. Refining infrastructure has been smashed. Defense facilities have been hit in ways that they never have been hit before. I’m not saying it’s a knock-out blow. Not at all. But this is different. If this keeps up for another month, given low strategic depth for Israel, then it’s basically utterly devastating. They will need an American bailout — you could argue it’s all been an American bailout of late. But I agree there are those who are very much overstating the impact, at least at the moment.

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Dan Romero pfp

Since 73 — 10/7? Tragedy of civilian deaths and optics of the hospital are terrible yes but what serious military capacity has been impacted, esp. comparing to Iranian air defenses and IRGC leadership? They are spending a lot of money on interceptors but seems like the Americans are starting to fill in the gaps.

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Hugh Naylor pfp

Yeah but that’s the point. Were it not for American support, then the state would collapse. Thats why they are clamoring for our intervention now — because their shock attack last week did not do what they thought it would do. Iran is still capable. It was not a hezbollah strategic defeat. So it’s either give into a truce with Americans backing and take the wound, or they get smashed and go nuclear because they lost.

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Dan Romero pfp

Do you think American *defensive* support was ever in doubt either under the current or previous admin? Offensive support held back sure. But defensive support has been pretty iron clad. A Harris may have been different of course.

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Hugh Naylor pfp

With our defensive support, Israel has sustained the worst damage in its history. Ever. So the question ultimately depends on America’s action. That dynamic alone tells me that Israel is dependent and weak on its own. If we don’t intervene on their behalf, they lose and either take the loss or go Samson nuclear. What matters here is American involvement, and this dynamic alone demonstrates that Israeli strength is only as good as its American backing. So in that sense, Israel is weak and dependent. If we don’t help them, they are lost.

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Dan Romero pfp

“Worst damage in its history” How are you defining this?

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Hugh Naylor pfp

Never before have foreign ballistic missiles taken out Israeli infrastructure like this. There were a few incursions in 1973 that were serious, but the infrastructure damage of these strikes is new and profound. Even in ‘67, it never got this bad. This is different

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