quietly feels like trump imposed will, strong armed who he needed to, and knocked out his “day ones”

from here, i think ai bubbles into the largest global industry by multiples, rates fall back near zero, trade flows normalize, and ultimately, markets fully detract from reality in the second half of term 

been waiting for the parabolic inflection; whole world slowly goes risk-on over next two years as agi realization comes to fruition—the last significant wealth creation event for humanity as we know it 

you will be able to make money post agi, but you will not be able to move classes

Biggest issue is that previous eras of automation helped surplus labor move en masse up the stack from factories to service/knowledge work (and before that from farming to factories) and it did it over a generation or two 

In what sector does AI create jobs to absorb this surplus labor if there is a structural shift in how many bodies a companies needs to operate at same output? 

Entertainment? Doubtful especially in the context of how RPMs (main internet biz model) have been competed down over the past few years AND in light of the incentive structure for content/distribution platforms to just create the content themselves with AI. 

Maybe everyone becomes a CEO? Insane. Most people want to show up and get told what to do. Period. They want to feel ownership but with training wheels and non existential responsibilities, bc they have other shit they care about besides work. And even if by some miracle everyone did have the drive to do that we’ll just get hyper competition in every vertical to drive down the margin and profit in everything anyway. At least in everything that isn’t a tax on compute (AI megacorps) or payments (Stripe et al). 

I’m truly at a loss to where people will go. 

And even if we do find a place for people, can we even adapt the economy fast enough to outpace the hollowing out that will happen with AI at scale? AI tools can replace commodity workers in weeks not years if management is motivated enough. You can’t build companies for hundreds of thousands of people that fast. 

And if we somehow figure out a different Internet business models where this new infinite entertainment or whatever class works - how are people going to pay??

If we have society wide structural unemployment/underemloyment/informal hustle driven economies then people will just make less and without something like a UBI effectively redistributing a portion of the small gajillionaire class’s wealth accumulation nobody will be buying anything bc there won’t be excess $$ to spend. 

I’ve gotten into the habit of asking normie/non internet people i meet specifics about what they do for work in the past year or so and all I hear is automate-able shit

It is crazytown times fr

essentially I agree

https://farcaster.xyz/cameron/0x4ef17d8c

weird internet kid. word rotator. yapping on /okbanger. playing with @wannanaplabs. curating in /cameron | dev + vet + HBS. 
Cameronarmstrong.org 🫡

pie growing or not, worsening wealth inequality & class stagnation is inevitable