Manipulating this market would be a worthwhile use of $10k-$100k by Israel. 

Spike the odds, disseminate among Iranian dissidents, and encourage revolution.

Im curious to see where manipulation of prediction markets nets out given their increasing prominence as a source of truth. 

For elections—where the odds could have a non zero impact on votes similar to polls—you could see a significant % of campaign advertising spend find its way into just betting on their candidate winning: becoming a literal war of attrition. 

The above line of thinking only makes sense if the perception of current odds has a meaningful impact on voter decision making, but that doesn’t seem that far from reality.

In high-stakes elections, where odds can sway voter sentiment like polls do, campaigns may find it more effective to bet on their own candidate just to boost market confidence. That creates a feedback loop stronger odds drive momentum, which shifts media coverage and voter psychology.
At that point, markets aren't just forecasting,they're being gamed as part of the campaign strategy.